GECF estimates indicate that global gas production for 2024 will rise by about 2.8 percent from 2023 levels, reaching roughly 4.162 trillion cubic meters. This projection reflects a continuing trend of expansion across major gas markets and highlights North America as a key driver of global supply growth. The estimate appears in industry summaries and is often cited in discussions about energy mix, regional balance, and the evolving role of natural gas in global energy security.
Within the anticipated global mix, North America is expected to contribute about one third of the total output, while the CIS region could account for roughly one fifth of production. In North America, the United States and Canada are forecast to produce about 1.305 trillion cubic meters, with the CIS region contributing around 817 billion cubic meters. These figures underscore how regional dynamics, including demand recovery, project execution, and policy frameworks, shape the trajectory of gas supply through the mid-2020s.
From a regional growth perspective, the strongest absolute gains are projected in the CIS, with an increase of about 33 billion cubic meters, followed by North America at around 26 billion cubic meters, and the Middle East at roughly 23 billion cubic meters. The distribution of gains reflects varied catalysts across regions: renewed exploration activity, new pipeline and LNG project completions, and shifts in export strategy that compress logistics costs and support exportable gas supplies.
Looking back at 2023, global gas production rose by only 0.8 percent to roughly 4.048 trillion cubic meters. In that year, the United States, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region were the standout areas for production growth. The United States increased output by about 42 billion cubic meters, driven by higher yields from existing fields and incremental gas from associated developments. In the Middle East, growth of approximately 19 billion cubic meters was supported by expansion in Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, reflecting regional investment in gas-intensive industries and export capacity.
Industry observers note that even before these projections, there was awareness that the world could realize a sustained rise in gas output alongside other energy sources. This outlook aligns with a broader trend toward greater diversification of energy supply, where natural gas plays a transitional role in balancing electricity grids and reducing emissions as countries pursue cleaner energy portfolios.
Earlier price dynamics for U.S. gas reflected weather-driven demand and seasonal anomalies, including warmer winters that tempered price pressure. Such fluctuations underscore how energy markets respond to a confluence of climatic, economic, and policy signals, often translating into shifts in production planning, storage strategies, and international trading positions.
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