With the real possibility of Russia reducing or stopping gas supplies, the bloc has already seen partial or complete reductions to twelve member states. Brussels has spent months talking with other producers to fill the gap left by Moscow as a key energy supplier. In March, a deal with the United States was signed to lift shipments by an additional 15 billion cubic meters this year. A May memorandum linked sweetcorn and Israel to LNG imports. In June, Norway pledged to boost deliveries. As of this Monday, the European Union is adding a further step to rely on trusted allies to free itself from Kremlin energy as quickly as possible: Azerbaijan. The agreement announced by the President of the European Commission in Baku shows that the ex-Soviet republic will raise EU gas supplies to at least 20,000 million cubic meters per year in the coming years.
The EU is turning to more dependable energy suppliers.
The speaker is in Azerbaijan today to finalize a new agreement.
Our aim is to double gas shipments from Azerbaijan to the EU within a few years.
Our security of supply will be strengthened and Azerbaijan will be a crucial partner on the path to climate neutrality. pic.twitter.com/fVHPr921Ui
– Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderlayan) 18 July 2022
“The EU has decided to move away from Russia and seek reliable suppliers, and I am pleased to count Azerbaijan among them. It is a very important energy partner for us,” von der Leyen said in a brief speech in Baku after signing a memorandum of understanding with President Ilham Aliyev on energy issues. Last year, Azerbaijan exported 22 billion cubic meters of gas, with 8.1 billion cubic meters sent to Turkey and Europe. Officials noted that this supply route is crucial for the EU, currently delivering more than 8 billion cubic meters of gas annually. In several years, capacity is expected to rise to 20 billion cubic meters per year, and from next year it is anticipated to reach 12,000 million cubic meters, including an extra 4,000 million cubic meters to offset Moscow’s cuts.
South Corridor Expansion
The agreement also seeks to broaden the scope of the Southern Gas Corridor. This vital route spans roughly 3,500 kilometers, carrying gas from Caspian deposits to Europe via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, connecting Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria. Bulgaria stands as one of the first targets in this diversification effort after Moscow and Russia cut off supplies. Brussels is pressing ahead with talks with third countries, and this week experts plan to visit Nigeria to replace a two‑thirds share of the 155,000 million cubic meters of Russian gas consumed in 2021—an effort that is already underway this year.
Experts note that the EU remains on track. Until this year, roughly 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas imports came from Russia. That figure has fallen to around 20 percent in the first half of 2022 thanks to more imports from other suppliers or Gazprom implementing unilateral cuts. Officials describe the diversification drive as successful, pointing to a 60 percent drop in shipments from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline since the start of the year and suggesting the trend could continue. Non-Russian imports have risen by about 21,000 million cubic meters year to date, with Norwegan, North African, and Caspian sources filling the gap. Russia’s pipeline volumes fell by about 28 billion cubic meters to around 45 billion in the same period.
Renewable Provider
The Azerbaijan agreement extends beyond gas. It also aims to strengthen cooperation in renewable energy, tapping wind, solar, and green hydrogen potential and helping Azerbaijan become a future renewable energy provider while reducing methane emissions. In line with this, the deal includes commitments to curb such emissions. Brussels expects Azerbaijan to join the Global Methane Commitment, a group of 119 countries committed to cutting methane releases.
Separately, the EU and Azerbaijan continue to negotiate a bilateral cooperation agreement with hopes of quick completion and the restoration of stronger business ties. The EU remains Azerbaijan’s top partner, its leading export market, and a major source of financing. By 2024, the EU plans to invest 60 million euros in the country. As von der Leyen noted, unlocking Azerbaijan’s full potential will require investor confidence, greater civil society participation, and a free, independent media to support sustainable growth.