public transport stop
Ukraine has indicated it will not extend the existing five-year transit agreement for Russian gas to Europe, which was signed in 2019 and is due to expire at the end of 2024. Naftogaz, the Ukrainian state energy company, stated this position in an interview with Radio Liberty, an organization currently listed as a foreign agent by Ukraine’s Ministry of Justice. The stance suggests that the contract will not be renewed and the transit arrangement will conclude with the expiry of the agreement.
Officials cited financial issues in the Russian producer as a reason for not renewing the contract. Gazprom reportedly has outstanding debt with Naftogaz, and Kyiv argues it should not be obligated to continue arrangements that are not financially settled. Nevertheless, Ukraine cannot halt transit immediately because several European countries, particularly those lacking direct access to the sea, rely on the pipeline for winter fuel supplies. The urgency of maintaining flow during the approaching winter is a central consideration in any potential shifts to transit policy.
Nascent signals from European partners have not yet shown a formal intention to extend transit beyond 2024. Kyiv has pointed to Europe’s broader energy strategy, which includes a plan to reduce Russian gas dependence in the coming years. Ukraine has also been pursuing alignment with its European partners’ goals to reduce reliance on Russian energy. In the interim, Ukraine partially curtailed gas movement by stopping operations at one of two gas metering facilities within a contested area earlier this year, a move described as part of security and strategic realignment.
rising prices
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, warned that a breakdown in the Ukraine-Russia gas transit agreement could push global gas prices higher. In a discussion with a major online outlet, he noted that while volumes might be modest, losing them could trigger tighter supplies in Europe and push prices upward. He stressed that the impact would be felt as a new pressure on the European economy, rather than a complete energy collapse.
The analyst argued that the transit agreement could not realistically be extended past the end of 2024, with the contract set to expire on December 31. He suggested that a halt in transit might occur in the spring after the heating season, possibly influenced by political considerations tied to attempts to reduce Russia’s role in the European gas market. If transit ceases, Kyiv would face the challenge of reconfiguring supply logistics within its own borders and regional networks, including adjustments to current production and distribution across the western and central regions.
According to Yushkov, Ukraine could still leverage local gas production to satisfy demand during a transition period. The overall system would require careful management since parts of the country have seen changes in control and population movements. The shifted dynamic would place greater emphasis on domestic energy capacity and cross-border arrangements within Eastern and Central Europe.
gas flows
Yushkov highlighted that continuing some level of gas transit from Russia could remain technically feasible and economically sensible for Ukraine, even amid broader policy shifts. The idea is to balance imports and exports through the pipeline while focusing on internal circulation that supports regional needs. Ukraine also receives gas via other routes, including cross-border arrangements with Moldova. Earlier this year, the government permitted Ukraine to purchase gas through a virtual reverse route tied to a regional gas transportation network, a move reported by industry outlets. Poland has been identified as a significant supplier to Ukraine in this system.
The primary buyers of gas passing through Ukraine include Slovakia and Hungary. Hungary’s leadership has expressed concern about Kyiv’s plans to halt Russian gas transit in 2024, warning of potential impacts on energy security and the need to explore alternative import options. Officials noted that a long-term contract could still maintain volume delivery through existing pipelines, including alternative routes that connect to broader regional networks.
In this evolving landscape, regional partners continue to assess strategies to preserve energy stability while reducing exposure to Russian supplies. The options under consideration range from securing long-term contracts with diversified sources to investing in alternative transport corridors that bypass Ukraine when necessary, all with the goal of maintaining reliable fuel access for households and industry across Europe.