Ukraine gas transit via a single entry point and Europe’s gas supply outlook

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Ukraine’s gas transit via a single entry point and the broader European supply picture

Recent disclosures from a Gazprom spokesperson, Sergey Kupriyanov, on a May broadcast reported that Ukraine is now routing European gas transit through only one entry point. The claim suggests this reduction could affect the reliability of gas deliveries to some European customers. The speaker noted a 25% drop in gas deliveries to Germany via Ukraine compared with the previous day.

On May 11, the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (GTSOU) announced the shutdown of the Sokhranivka crossing at the Sokhranivka gas metering station and the Novopskov border compressor station in the Lugansk region, effective from 7:00 a.m. that day. The Novopskov facility previously accounted for roughly a third of European imports, amounting to around 32.6 million cubic meters per day. Ukrainian authorities described these moves as the start of force majeure, making further transit via Sokhranivka and Novopskov impossible while these assets remained under Russian control. To fulfill commitments to European buyers, temporary capacity transfers from Sokhranivka to the Sudzha port in Ukrainian-controlled territory were considered.

Counterpoints from Gazprom

Gazprom countered that it had received notice from the Ukrainian operator the prior day but found no grounds to halt deliveries via Sokhranivka. The company asserted that Sokhranivka and Novopskov remained operational and suggested there is no technical ability to shift transit to Sudzha at this time. Gazprom emphasized its adherence to all contractual obligations and payment for the use of Ukraine’s gas transit system. An official remark attributed to Kupriyanov claimed that Ukrainian technicians continue to work in Sokhranivka and Novopskov, and that transit through Sokhranivka had progressed without dispute from counterparties.

Following Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, western governments intensified pressure with sanctions targeting banking and high-tech imports. In response, Vladimir Putin issued a decree directing payments for gas supplies to unfriendly countries in rubles. Despite these political tensions, gas transit through Ukraine reportedly continued in line with contractual terms, and Gazprom asserted ongoing deliveries to European customers.

Contractual basis and potential future changes

A five-year gas transit contract between Russia and Ukraine, agreed in December 2019 and valid through the end of 2024, anticipated a total throughput of 225 billion cubic meters, with an annual quota of 40 billion cubic meters for 2021–2024. Gazprom’s leadership had previously signaled openness to boosting transit volumes after the current agreement expires, contingent on market conditions and prices. The involvement of German partners in discussions was viewed as relevant given Europe’s decarbonization goals. An official statement in December 2021 highlighted Gazprom’s continued reliability in delivering gas to European consumers via multiple routes, including Ukraine.

Alternative routes and market strategy

Gazprom defines its European market strategy around maintaining leadership, ensuring dependable supply, and improving sales efficiency. For decades, European nations have relied on Russia as a major energy supplier. The company has highlighted projects aimed at diversifying transit routes, such as a direct route linking Russian and European gas networks in the Nord Stream pipeline and the Turkish Stream project. The first line serves Turkey, while the second line extends to Southern and Southeast European markets. Since early 2020, these routes have supported gas deliveries to a range of EU and neighboring markets. In 2022, Nord Stream 2 underwent certification, with the project currently paused as regulatory and geopolitical issues unfold. [Source attribution: Gazprom corporate communications]

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