The March trajectory for the ruble is expected to span a broad corridor, roughly from 87 to 92 rubles per US dollar. This outlook comes from Denis Perepelitsa, a Candidate of Economic Sciences and a seasoned expert serving as Director of the Federal Financial Literacy Methodological Center, as well as a professor in the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at the Russian University of Economics GV Plekhanov. He outlined the forecast in an interview with socialbites.ca, noting that the FX market is currently marked by volatility and that the ruble has paused its prior weakening cycle and begun a phase of recovery. The currency could reach as low as 87 rubles by the end of March, yet there remains a genuine possibility of further strengthening beyond that level, depending on how the market absorbs new information and adjusts to shifting conditions. The rate could experience short-lived corrections, a temporary dip, and then resume its strengthening path as traders reassess risk and fundamentals. In short, the anticipated band for the month is likely to be wider than usual, reflecting unsettled sentiment and rapid re-pricing in response to evolving data.
The driving forces behind this outlook include heightened global uncertainty, persistent inflationary pressures in major economies such as the United States and the European Union, oscillations in crude oil prices, and the timing of tax payments for exporters that can temporarily influence demand for rubles. Perepelitsa emphasized that these factors interact to shape the currency’s path, with oil price movements and tax cycles acting as near-term catalysts that can push the ruble toward the lower or upper bounds of the expected range. Across scenarios, the ruble is seen as more resilient than in prior periods, provided external conditions do not deteriorate rapidly and domestic factors remain steady.
Looking ahead, the ruble may be supported by exporters meeting tax obligations during March, a potential uptick in oil prices, and the possibility that the dollar does not strengthen as much against other currencies. Perepelitsa noted that a continued strengthening trend is plausible, and that a decline below 87 rubles in the near term is unlikely unless a fresh wave of adverse news hits the global economy. The balance of risks remains asymmetric: positive developments in commodity markets or tax timing could tip the scale toward a firmer ruble, while renewed inflationary pressures or renewed geopolitical tensions could loosen the currency’s footing. These nuances underline the need for ongoing monitoring of macro indicators and policy signals as the month unfolds.
Market commentary from the Moscow Exchange at the timestamp of 11:07 Moscow time placed the dollar around 90.9 rubles, reflecting a modest retreat of about a quarter of a ruble from the prior session’s close. This movement aligns with the broader view that the dollar’s trajectory will be punctuated by brief retracements and recoveries as traders weigh new information and recalibrate expectations. The dollar’s performance remains a barometer for risk sentiment, trade flows, and the evolving balance of supply and demand in the ruble market, with every tick offering clues about where the currency may head next.
Alexander Bakhtin, who previously served as an investment strategist at BCS World of Investments, contributed his perspective on the ruble’s recent strength. His assessment highlighted the interplay between global risk appetite and domestic dynamics, suggesting that a combination of favorable oil price developments, tax-related liquidity considerations, and stabilizing inflation could continue to support the ruble in the near term. As always, investors and policymakers alike should watch key data releases, central bank communications, and energy market signals, since these inputs are likely to determine whether the ruble maintains its current momentum or faces renewed pressure in the weeks ahead.