As winter fades, analysts anticipate further pressure on the ruble, with some scenarios suggesting its value could slip toward 95 rubles per dollar. This projection comes from BitRiver’s analyst Vladislav Antonov, who outlined key factors shaping the currency’s trajectory in the near term. The assessment emphasizes that February could bring renewed volatility driven by a mix of domestic and international dynamics that traders are watching closely.
Antonov points to several primary catalysts for ruble weakness. Among them is the continued strain from a global oil market where prices have not fully rebounded, potentially weakening export revenues and affecting the currency’s balance of payments. A less favorable supply-demand balance in the foreign exchange market adds another layer of pressure, as more rubles might be required to settle imports or service external debt. Additionally, the anticipated wind-down of foreign exchange sales from Russia’s National Welfare Fund (NWF) could remove a buffer that had previously helped stabilize the ruble during periods of stress.
Beyond commodity prices and FX flows, the fiscal backdrop could tilt the ruble downward. The national budget deficit for the current year appears likely to widen, reflecting higher spending or lower-than-expected revenues, and this fiscal stance can influence investor sentiment and the currency’s value. Alongside this, there is market talk about the potential easing of monetary policy by the Bank of Russia, a shift that could come with additional currency implications if it signals a less aggressive stance on tightening in a climate of depreciating rubles.
Antonov also noted that the Central Bank of Russia possesses a toolkit designed to counteract rapid ruble declines. He expressed confidence that the regulator would deploy appropriate measures promptly if the dollar tests the 95 ruble level. In such a scenario, policy actions could include liquidity support or interventions aimed at smoothing short-term volatility, thereby helping to anchor expectations during a period of USD strength. The analyst underscores that the central bank’s responsiveness will be a key determinant of how far the ruble can overshoot in downside moves while markets seek balance.
Recent trading activity on the Moscow Stock Exchange reflects the unfolding tensions. The dollar briefly surpassed 91 rubles, while the euro rose toward 99 rubles, signaling increased demand for hard currencies amid shifting risk appetites. This pattern aligns with a broader market mood where investors are reassessing exposure to ruble-denominated assets in response to evolving domestic and global drivers. In this environment, traders are weighing the probability of further volatility in the days ahead and whether policy signals will offer relief or further complication for ruble trajectories.
Earlier statements from the Central Bank suggested there would be no explicit commitment to actively targeting a fixed ruble level through direct interventions. This stance underscores a preference for allowing market forces to operate while retaining the option to act if stress intensifies. The absence of a fixed ceiling or floor for the ruble places greater emphasis on prudent risk management by market participants, who must monitor a range of variables including commodity prices, trade balances, and policy decisions that could shift sentiment quickly. Taken together, these factors convey a cautiously optimistic view that, with timely policy tools, the ruble can be stabilized even in the face of near-term pressures, though the path will likely feature episodes of heightened volatility and rapid re-pricing as February unfolds.