When elections unfold without disruptions, analysts anticipate a strengthening of the ruble against major currencies next week. Market watchers note that one U.S. dollar could fall to around 91 rubles or even below, while the euro might hover near 98–99 rubles. This assessment comes from Denis Buivolov, an analyst with BCS World of Investments, who spoke to socialbites.ca for a broader view of the currency landscape. (Source: socialbites.ca)
In the near term, Buivolov observes the dollar inching toward the 92 ruble mark within the week, with the possibility of closing at the current levels if external news flow remains calm by week’s end. The analyst explains that the political backdrop is already baked into current quotes, and any further ruble strength would likely hinge on two dynamics: certainty about the election process and increased supply of foreign currency from exporters ahead of the tax period. This combination could help sustain the ruble’s resilience, even if gains are not dramatic. (Source: socialbites.ca)
Buivolov emphasizes that the ruble faces upside potential that depends on more than just political risk resolution. He notes that ongoing currency strength is plausible as exporters reduce fear of future ruble depreciation and prepay or convert foreign earnings as tax considerations approach. Still, the analyst cautions against expecting a sharp rally given the persistent imbalance between limited export earnings inflows and rising demand from importers and households. (Source: socialbites.ca)
According to Buivolov, there is no urgent reason to overhaul existing foreign exchange positions. For individuals who earn and spend primarily in rubles, a prudent approach could involve keeping roughly a third of savings in foreign currencies and related instruments. This guidance aligns with a conservative strategy that aims to diversify risk while preserving liquidity in a market where cash flows can be volatile. (Source: socialbites.ca)
Real-time quotes from the Moscow Exchange show the dollar near 91.9 rubles and the euro around 99.9 rubles at 13:46 Moscow time, underscoring a domestic market that remains sensitive to both political developments and macroeconomic signals. Traders watch every tick as the situation evolves, aware that even small shifts in sentiment can influence day-to-day pricing. (Source: socialbites.ca)
Election activity ran from March 15 and is scheduled to conclude on March 17, introducing a temporary overlay of political risk into currency dynamics. Analysts stress that the outcome, turnout, and any unexpected developments could feed into short-term volatility, even as longer-term trends may hinge on fundamentals such as inflation, interest rate differentials, and capital flows. (Source: socialbites.ca)
Earlier commentary from Sergei Dubinin, the former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia, identified a baseline level for the ruble around the March 22 window, framing expectations for the central bank’s policy stance in the near term. Market participants often cross-check such views with current price action to gauge whether shifts in policy or sentiment are likely to materialize into tangible exchange-rate moves. (Source: socialbites.ca)