Next week, analysts anticipate the ruble trading season to tilt around 95 to 99 per dollar. This forecast comes from Denis Buivolov, an analyst at BCS World of Investments, who provided his view to a financial news outlet.
According to Buivolov, the recent regulation that mandates foreign currency sales by exporters could support ruble strength. The regulation is tied to standards for currency sales, but specifics on the participating companies and the precise measures remain undisclosed. There is no published decree detailing a minimum refund threshold for compulsory income yet. While the ruble has shown some resilience, the overall market reaction remains muted. At the close of the week, the dollar traded a bit above 97 rubles, Buivolov noted.
Buivolov emphasized that if the dollar does not retreat toward the 95–96 ruble zone soon, a test of the 100 ruble level cannot be ruled out. Yet he tempered expectations, suggesting that such a move is unlikely in the immediate term. Preparations for the upcoming tax period could spur activity in the foreign currency market, potentially supporting the ruble as banks and exporters adjust to reporting timelines and regulatory requirements.
The analyst also drew attention to energy markets, pointing to Brent crude again hovering near the $90 per barrel mark after a recent pullback. He highlighted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contribute to a persistent premium in oil prices, making black gold sensitive to regional developments and adding another layer of volatility to the currency picture.
Apart from regulatory changes, the market has been watching steps taken by the Russian authorities to regulate foreign exchange earnings from key sectors. The policy affects a broad group of exporters across the fuel and energy complex, metallurgy, forestry, chemical industries, and grain production. The impact of such measures on the ruble hinges on how strictly they are implemented and how market participants respond to updated rules about currency retention and conversion.
Market observers have asked how the ruble will behave in the wake of these measures. Some point to a potential stabilization if exporters align with new requirements without triggering supply pressures in the broader market. Others caution that the actual effect will depend on the pace of implementation and the reaction of importers, lenders, and foreign exchange desks. The conversation continues as traders weigh the regulatory landscape against evolving oil prices and global risk sentiment.
In assessing the near-term trajectory, analysts stress that a sustained move above the 97–98 ruble range would require a combination of steady oil prices, continued domestic demand for foreign currency, and credible policy signaling. Conversely, a return to the mid-90s would necessitate a disinflationary impulse or a notable shift in external factors that reduce the appeal of holding rubles in reserve or for settlement purposes. The currency outlook remains a balancing act between policy actions, commodity dynamics, and external economic conditions, with investors keeping a careful watch on how these elements converge in the weeks ahead.
Overall, the narrative around the ruble is one of cautious optimism tempered by the realities of regulatory changes and global energy volatility. Neither a rapid strengthening nor a sharp depreciation can be declared guaranteed, but the market is certainly weighing the new rules, the tax calendar, and the oil complex as key ingredients shaping the currency path in the near term.