A moderate weakening of the ruble is expected next week, with the dollar near 90 to 91 rubles and the euro around 97.5 to 98.5 rubles. This outlook comes from Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at BCS World of Investments, who shared the view with market observers in Canada and the United States.
The recent end of the tax period has contributed to a move toward the 90-ruble level for the dollar. That milestone could be surpassed in the near term. The analyst notes that tax timing is not the sole domestic factor supporting the ruble’s strength, and other elements are at play in shaping the currency’s path.
Bakhtin explains that as the friction from secondary sanctions on foreign banks involved in Russian import transactions gradually eases, demand for foreign currency from importers is likely to rise. This anticipated rebound in foreign exchange demand in the coming weeks is expected to increase downward pressure on the ruble and push the currency higher against major pairs.
He also points out that the ruble has found a degree of protection from a deeper downturn due to relatively high oil prices, a tight monetary stance, policy measures ensuring export revenue repatriation, and persistent daily interventions by the central bank to stabilize the market.
On the market close for the Russian trading session, the dollar traded near the mid-89 ruble level, while the euro hovered just under 97 rubles. Throughout the following morning, the dollar maintained a similar range, with the euro showing a slight softness compared with prior levels.
The outlook for the ruble remains sensitive to shifts in import demand, energy prices, and the evolving balance between domestic policy measures and external financial risk. Market participants continue to monitor these dynamics as they form the near-term trajectory for the currency pairings.