Spain is expected to harvest around 20.09 million tonnes of cereals this year, covering crops from wheat to maize and rye. This marks a 93.6% increase from the drought-hit prior season and a 15.6% rise over the average of the last five years. The forecast, published this week by the Cooperatives Agroalimentarias de España ahead of the harvest, signals a significant relief for the Spanish cereal sector, which endured two years of sharply reduced yields. Ultimately, this upturn will influence consumer prices for staples such as bread, flour, and pasta.
Spring rainfall will also benefit other rainfed crops, including almonds, which in total will be about 10% higher than in 2023. The olive crop, already fully harvested, shows a 28% production increase this year, and forecasts for the upcoming campaign, kicking off in October, look very promising.
Early projections put cereal yields across Spain at 3.69 tonnes per hectare, about 11% above the five-year average. Soft wheat production is expected at 6.3 million tonnes, barley at 7.7 million tonnes, maize around 3.6 million tonnes, hard wheat at 900,000 tonnes, oats for grain at 740,000 tonnes, and rye at 215,000 tonnes. Cooperatives leaders note that temperatures this year were well suited to the cereal cycle, helping crops avoid water stress between April and May and allowing proper formation of the ears.
More almonds
Meanwhile the FCAC estimates that almond production for the 2024-2025 campaign will reach 9,752 tonnes, up from 7,316 tonnes the previous year, representing a 33.3% increase. The nuts official Josep Pere Colat links the rise to favorable water availability in key almond growing areas and a modest expansion of irrigation plantings. No significant frosts occurred as in 2022, which had disrupted the harvest and pushed up prices.
Public bodies Asaja, COAG, Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias de España, and the Spanish Association of Producers of Nuts and Carob Aeofruse forecast almond production at 125,054 tonnes, about 41% above the four-year average and roughly 10% higher than the last campaign.
In contrast, almond producers of carob anticipate harvests near 11,000 tonnes, a drop of 38.9% from the previous campaign which produced 18,000 tonnes. The drought in the second half of 2023 severely affected flowering and fruiting in many trees.