The ruble is gaining strength as February’s tax period peaks, yet the dollar hovering around 91 rubles could spark market jitters. This assessment comes from Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist with BCS World of Investments, in discussions with socialbites.ca.
Bakhtin notes that the national currency could rebound once the tax season’s peak passes. He points to today’s substantial financial outlays as a factor in short-term liquidity. In a market with limited liquidity, even a single sizable FX sale can tilt the exchange rate in a localized way. A large portion of tax funds has already moved through exporters, which means the currency trajectory might shift in the near term, and the dollar could push back above 92 rubles.
Despite the dollar’s strength against major currencies, as shown by the DXY index rising to around 104 and oil prices easing, the ruble has not weakened in tandem. Bakhtin explains that the ruble’s stance remains resilient amid these global moves, underscoring that external pressures have not translated into a broad retreat for the Russian currency.
Bakhtin also observes that the dollar is unlikely to surge decisively against the ruble before the weekend. He cites exchange controls, ongoing central bank actions, and elevated interest rates as influential forces shaping the ruble’s short-term path. A practical threshold he highlights is a short-term limit near 92.5 rubles per dollar.
Data from the Moscow Exchange shows the dollar around 91.8 rubles at 15:06 local time on February 28, slipping about 20 kopecks from Tuesday’s close. The intraday swing stretched from roughly 91.5 to 92.3 rubles, illustrating the currency’s sensitivity to daily liquidity and policy news.
In related commentary, a discussion in the State Duma addressed the Central Bank’s key rate, reflecting ongoing attention to how Russian monetary policy interacts with market dynamics and investor sentiment. The evolving policy environment continues to shape expectations for the ruble in the near term, especially as markets weigh external factors against domestic liquidity conditions.