The Ministry of Economic Development expected the ruble to gain value in the months ahead, with a peak forecast around mid-2024. As outlined in the government-approved forecast for 2024–2026, the ministry anticipated the dollar trading near the mid-80s rubles range at the midpoint of next year. This overview reflects the ministry’s published projections and the interpretation shared by Interfax at the time. (Attribution: Ministry of Economic Development forecast report, cited via Interfax)
According to the ministry’s projections for December 2023, the exchange rate was anticipated to sit around 94 rubles per dollar and about 105 rubles per euro. By June 2024, the ruble was expected to strengthen to roughly 87.5 per dollar and to about 97.5 per euro. The forecast noted that by the end of 2023, pressures on the trade balance and on the ruble from foreign trade were expected to ease gradually. It pointed to a shift in global commodity markets since mid-2023, where oil and certain other export prices rose, supporting higher foreign exchange inflows through the current account and contributing to a more favorable currency structure. These dynamics were seen as factors that could help the ruble firm toward year-end 2023 and into the first half of 2024. (Attribution: Ministry forecast report, December 2023 projections)
Following a rise in the dollar’s value to beyond 100 rubles per unit, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation responded with monetary tightening, increasing its key rate from 8.5% to 13% per annum. In addition, several currency-control measures were introduced, resulting in the ruble trading within a band around 95–97 per dollar. This policy move marked a departure from prior rounds of intervention and aimed to curb rapid depreciation risks. The authorities signaled that the stance would be maintained to guard macroeconomic stability amid volatility. (Attribution: Central Bank policy actions and currency measures, as reported by official briefings)
Looking back, the central bank acted to guard against a sudden devaluation of the ruble, prioritizing currency stability amid shifting market conditions. The interplay between external price dynamics, the pace of foreign inflows, and regulatory measures shaped the trajectory of the ruble over the period in question. Market participants watched closely how these factors would interact with the broader economic backdrop, including oil markets, trade flows, and the evolving currency composition of reserves. (Attribution: Central Bank communications and market analyses)