Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska shared thoughts on the oil market in messages flowing through his Telegram channel. He responded to questions about whether a Financial Times article could meaningfully influence US energy prices and argued that such a piece is unlikely to move prices on its own. Deripaska positioned the subject within a broader map of supply and demand shifts, noting that price movements are driven less by headlines and more by fundamentals that reflect today’s global energy balance. In his view, the market has reached a juncture where the risks and opportunities tied to production decisions, inventory levels, and policy signals will determine the path of crude prices in the months ahead. His commentary aligns with a growing interest among investors to assess how OPEC+ production, non-OPEC+ supply, and demand trajectories will interact to set a fair price for Brent and other benchmarks in North American markets.
Notably, he stated that nobody wants to see prices near $50 per barrel, but he warned that escaping such a level would be improbable under current conditions. The remark captures the sentiment of many traders who monitor Brent’s oscillations in response to inventory data, political developments, and macroeconomic signals. Deripaska did not present the drop as a guaranteed outcome; instead, he framed it as a plausible scenario should the oversupply persist and demand growth falter. The underlying message is that a correction could align prices with a more sustainable range, even if the adjustment imposes short-term pain for producers and consumers alike.
On March 10, Brent traded at just over $70 per barrel, underscoring persistent expectations of volatility in the near term. In a separate statement, he indicated that Brent prices could slide to around $60-65 per barrel in 2025. This forecast sits against a backdrop of forecasts for increased supply from producers outside the OPEC+ group and cautious projections for demand growth in the 2025-2026 window. The analysis reflects a market in which price evolution will hinge on how quickly new supply can be absorbed and how robust economic momentum proves to be across major consuming regions, including North America.
Deripaska attributes the potential price correction to a deteriorating global balance. An enlarged supply picture, coupled with conservative estimates for production growth outside OPEC+, could cap upside risks and exert downward pressure on prices. At the same time, demand is expected to recover gradually in 2025 and 2026, but not fast enough to erase the oversupply. Traders weigh a mix of inventory trends, geopolitical considerations, and shifts in energy use that could keep Brent trading within a wide band as the market seeks equilibrium. This view emphasizes that price moves will be shaped by a balancing act between producers’ capacity expansions and buyers’ willingness to absorb new supply.
An unnamed market expert pointed to tariff policies pursued in the United States as an influential factor raising fears for global growth and energy demand. Trade measures can chill investment, disrupt supply chains, and dampen economic activity, all of which feed into the demand outlook for crude. In this frame, the oil market’s future path depends as much on policy confidence and macroeconomic momentum as on physical supply and weather-related disruptions. The combination of policy signals and market fundamentals creates a volatile environment that requires careful monitoring by investors across North America.
Historically, discussions around U.S. policy toward Iranian oil exports have grabbed attention because any move to curb shipments could tighten global supply and lift prices in the short run. The broader narrative surrounding these efforts remains a critical factor for market participants as they evaluate potential scenarios for 2025 and beyond. Observers note that while policy actions can influence the tempo of price changes, the ultimate trajectory will hinge on the interplay of production, demand, and geopolitical risk. In summary, Deripaska’s remarks contribute to a wider dialogue about how global energy markets navigate the uncertainties of the coming years.