Oil markets moved lower after The Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates could be reconsidering its participation in OPEC. The article highlighted a developing tension between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over oil policy, suggesting the gulf rivals are rethinking their long-standing alliance as global supply dynamics shift. The report set the stage for a day of volatile trading that reflected investors weighing the potential for a supplier realignment against the backdrop of ongoing supply-demand concerns.
Brent crude began March trading around the mid-$80s per barrel but slipped after the WSJ publication, dipping over 2.5% to about $82.6 per barrel when May delivery was priced on the London ICE market at 17:00 Moscow time. Futures recovered some of the losses, and by 19:45 Moscow time they hovered near $85.3. The move underscored the sensitivity of Brent to political signals from the Middle East and to evolving OPEC strategy expectations.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate also retreated. April futures, which had traded near $78 a barrel on Friday, fell to $76.3, down roughly 2.1%. Within a few hours, prices rebounded and traded close to the $79 mark as buyers stepped back in amid shifting supply assessments and risk appetite.
Analysts cited data from the American Petroleum Institute, released on March 3, showing a weekly rise in US strategic reserves by about 6.2 million barrels. That buildup added to the downward pressure on global oil prices by signaling ample near-term supply, even as demand conditions remained mixed across regions.
Price declines followed coverage of the UAE-Saudi dispute that referenced a cooling of relations during a regional leaders’ gathering in January, where Saudi leadership reportedly avoided certain formal engagements with UAE figures. The WSJ portrayal suggested that Abu Dhabi was dissatisfied with recent OPEC policy directions, in which Riyadh has played a central role, prompting market watchers to reassess the cohesion of the group and its influence on price setting.
Despite the rhetoric of rivalry, the article noted that Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain technically allied, yet have grown divergent on issues like foreign investment, market influence, and responses to regional conflicts, notably the Yemen war. Those tensions, coupled with Iran’s regional ambitions and the impact of Russia’s actions in Ukraine on global energy flows, were described as factors that could prompt a realignment of alliances within the energy-rich Persian Gulf. In turn, such shifts could lead to new OPEC decisions that influence price trajectories and production policies.
WSJ sources indicated that Emirati officials had repeatedly met with Saudi leadership at high levels to ease tensions, but these discussions did not prevent a persistent drift in viewpoints. The report also pointed to changes in how the UAE viewed its production obligations under OPEC, given its own capacity to ramp up output, and it noted internal deliberations within Abu Dhabi about possibly withdrawing from the organization in the future. While withdrawal had been discussed in the past, no concrete steps had been taken, the article asserted, though the current rift with Riyadh revived the topic.
According to the publication, while the UAE publicly supports OPEC’s current strategy of moderating production, private conversations with U.S. officials suggested an interest in increasing output in step with Washington’s broader energy diplomacy. The UAE has since sought to defend its perceived right to expand production ahead of other cartel members, reflecting a broader debate over market share, pricing power, and strategic leverage in energy markets.
Analysts quoted in the report suggested that the conflict between the two largest oil producers remains nuanced. The UAE and Saudi Arabia continued to participate in joint exercises and ministerial contacts, but their past era of near-perfect alignment appeared to be giving way to a more cautious and pragmatic approach to cooperation. The broader question for markets remains how much any potential breach within OPEC could alter the balance of supply, influence pricing, and shape the behavior of other producers in the region and beyond. The WSJ coverage captured a moment of potential reorientation, while waiting for clearer signals from policy-makers and industry participants about the future contours of Middle East energy governance.