Forecasts for July 2024 suggest that the dollar’s exchange rate against the ruble will stay within a narrow corridor, hovering around 90 rubles with a tolerance of about two rubles in either direction. This view comes from Georgiy Ostapkovich, who directs the Market Research Center at the Institute of Statistics Research and Knowledge Economy within the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Ostapkovich emphasizes that significant volatility is not anticipated for the month, noting that the summer period has traditionally been characterized by limited dollar supply and higher prices. He points out that the seasonal pattern has historically included more residents traveling abroad, which tends to boost demand for foreign currency; however, in the current year, outbound travel volumes have reduced somewhat, reducing the odds of sharp exchange-rate movements in July. According to his assessment, the key driver during summer remains the balance between demand from households and the available supply, and with that balance intact, large swings are unlikely. He observes that a modest strengthening or weakening of the ruble is more plausible in the near term if external conditions shift, but a pronounced dive or spike seems unlikely within the month. The economist’s broader expectation is that if the ruble experiences any notable pressure, it would likely be a gentle gravitation toward the 90- ruble mark rather than a sudden break below or above it, reinforcing a sense of stability in the currency market for July.
Looking ahead, Ostapkovich outlines the possibility of a slight softening of the ruble during August and September, a period linked to the preparation for importing goods for the upcoming year. He explains that the cost of imports can exert downward pressure on the ruble if supply chains require more foreign currency. This dynamic could translate into a gradual rise in the dollar’s ruble price as international trade activities gear up for the new cycle. Yet even with this potential shift, the expert cautions that the movement should remain measured, as the domestic economy has shown resilience and policy tools are in place to manage modest fluctuations. He remains watchful for any signs that domestic demand could outpace supply, or that global financial conditions might alter capital flows, which would influence the rate trajectory into late summer and early autumn. Overall, his projection is that by the end of the year, the dollar could approach the 100-ruble level if macroeconomic conditions align with the forecast and external environments do not deteriorate markedly.
BCS World of Investments’ chief economist Ilya Fedorov adds a cautious note, answering inquiries about the near-term outlook. He indicates that it is unlikely the dollar will fall significantly below the 85 rubles threshold in the near future, barring unexpected shifts in monetary policy or global market sentiment. Fedorov’s assessment reflects a belief that the current balance of factors should prevent a steep decline in the dollar, even as seasonal patterns and import activity could nudge the rate toward modest gains at times. The emphasis remains on a measured trajectory rather than abrupt corrections, with attention to how consumer behavior, retail demand for foreign currency, and the pace of imports intersect to shape daily exchange-rate movements. Overall, the market consensus conveyed by Fedorov underscores caution rather than optimism about a rapid depreciation of the dollar in the near term, while acknowledging the possibility of gradual adjustments aligned with seasonal cycles and external conditions.
In practical terms, Russians have historically received guidance on how to approach dollar purchases during periods of volatility and seasonal change. The prevailing wisdom centers on assessing personal exposure to international travel, trade needs, and financial objectives, while keeping a flexible plan to respond to modest shifts in the ruble. This approach helps households navigate the summer market environment, balancing the allure of potential favorable rates against the risks of sudden movements. As the year progresses, more households may consider hedging options or adjusting their currency positions in response to evolving economic indicators, ensuring they are prepared for incremental changes rather than dramatic swings.