Diversified portfolio
Last week the dollar dipped to a two year low against the ruble, with around 66 rubles per US currency unit being quoted. The euro, another major reserve currency, also softened against the ruble but has since clawed back some ground. As of May 10, the Central Bank quotes roughly 67.38 rubles per dollar and 71.1 rubles per euro.
The ruble’s resilience against the world’s leading reserve currencies is linked to several factors. Restrictions on exporting and exchanging American currency from Russia, limiting cash exchanges to no more than $10,000, the withdrawal of many Western firms, a general drop in dollar turnover inside the country, and the shift of gas payments into rubles all contribute to this trend.
Given these conditions, Russians with sizeable funds may benefit from a diversified portfolio that includes dollars, euros, yuan and rubles. In a discussion with socialbites.ca, financier Ivan Soldatov stressed that such diversification can shield against rapid swings in exchange rates.
“I would avoid selling currency when you are holding dollars or euros for the long term. It resembles placing a bet in a casino on red or black — the risk is too high amid broad uncertainty. If possible, maintain a diversified mix of currencies including dollars, euros, yuan and rubles,” Soldatov advised.
keep your dollars with you
The financier also noted that Russians should not abandon dollar savings entirely. The US currency remains the dominant reserve, and holding dollars can yield benefits for years to come.
“The dollar should still be kept in mind. Many countries continue to support the American currency and cannot easily discard it.”
He recommended always buying and storing dollars, whether they are valued at around 35 rubles or at higher levels such as 80 to 90 rubles. The fixed dollar premium approach remains effective, according to Soldatov.
Evgeny Lashkov, Managing Director of ABC LLC, agreed with this view. Today, selling American currency in Russia is nearly impossible, so stocking up seems prudent while conditions improve.
“When you exchange, you can rarely use dollars for swaps. It is hard to withdraw more than 10 thousand, and moving funds abroad is cumbersome. Paying with Visa or Mastercard abroad often fails. This creates a market where supply is ample but demand is weak, driving down the price of the dollar,” Lashkov noted.
On one hand, Russian importers still need dollars to settle foreign purchases. Yet the current climate also presents barriers. Logistics chains are disrupted, the delivery of many goods to Russia is restricted, manufacturers and brand owners have exited the market, and cross-border transport by trucks and ships is largely blocked, making the overall dollar flow more constrained.
convert dollar to crypto
With export controls on foreign currency in place, saving and even growing dollar holdings can be achieved by converting dollars into cryptodollars. Soldatov highlighted that digital currency can then be remitted abroad with fewer frictions, such as to Thailand.
“If someone plans a long trip to a resort, the simplest option is to cash out the cryptocurrency. The ruble lacks liquidity in many places, and in Thailand it may be hard to exchange rubles at favorable rates. In such cases, the dollar equivalent on cryptocurrency exchanges becomes a practical alternative,” he explained.
In a diversified currency mix, it is prudent to include a crypto proxy for dollars such as cryptodollars and stablecoins like USDT. This approach to recording foreign currency savings has been used by Soldatov himself.
“From my own experience, you can withdraw any amount from Russia to your bank card via cryptocurrency in Thailand. If I need to move a large sum, I would convert it to cryptodollars, travel to Thailand, open a local account, pass the verification, and withdraw freely in Thai baht. For relocation to warmer climates, this can be a compelling option,” he said.
What about the ruble?
Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca offered varied views on the summer ruble outlook. Lashkov suggested that if monetary policy remains steady, the exchange rate could dip to about 40 rubles per dollar. He noted that interest rates could fall further but that such shifts would likely be temporary before stabilizing at normal levels.
“The budget assumed a dollar rate around 72–74 rubles under baseline conditions. A lower dollar rate is challenging for the government since energy resources are priced in dollars while spending obligations are in rubles. Exporters may receive relief, enabling them to earn more foreign currency without selling nearly all of it on the stock market, or there may be more flexible rules for dollar conversions,” he stated.
Soldatov outlined two possible paths. One scenario foresees continued ruble strengthening toward 50 rubles per dollar, though the sustainability depends on internal reserves. A negative scenario in the summer could see the dollar jump to 250 rubles. In that case, government and central bank resources might temporarily restrain the ruble, but later allow it to float. A large influx of rubles could trigger a sharp depreciation, making single-currency bets highly risky, Soldatov warned.