The currency market is watching closely as analysts suggest the dollar could dip below 90 rubles in the near term. This view comes from Georgy Ostapkovich, a senior economist who directs the Market Research Center at the Institute of Demographics and Economic Analysis at the Higher School of Economics, a leading national research university. He notes that a positive turn in the economy, accompanied by rising export revenues, could push the dollar past a key psychological threshold and trigger a shift in the ruble’s value that would be felt across financial markets. Ostapkovich emphasizes that predicting the exact level is difficult, and any movement toward 90 rubles would likely occur within days rather than months, depending on how the economy unfolds in the immediate future, including external demand and domestic policy responses. (Source attribution: Moscow Exchange)
According to Ostapkovich, several intertwined factors will shape the trajectory of the ruble. Strengthening export earnings would inject more hard currency into the economy, easing supply constraints in the foreign exchange market. At the same time, the Central Bank’s current account performance in August highlighted a healthier balance of payments, which could support a stronger ruble. He points out that if exports continue to flow robustly, the ruble could gain on the dollar, reducing the currency’s perceived vulnerability. Yet, the overall outcome will also depend on how the broader economy performs, including the pace of domestic growth, inflation dynamics, and policy steps taken by the Bank of Russia to manage the exchange rate. (Source attribution: Moscow Exchange)
Ostapkovich cautions that the decline or stabilization of the ruble is not simply a matter of short-term momentum. The long-term direction will hinge on the balance of payments, the currency market’s reaction to evolving external conditions, and the Central Bank’s toolkit in navigating exchange-rate fluctuations. In practical terms, traders will be watching for signs of sustained improvement in export receipts and clearer signals about policy measures aimed at dampening volatility without stifling growth. If these conditions converge, a level around 85 to 90 rubles per dollar has been discussed as a possible anchor in the near term, though the exact threshold remains uncertain and subject to change as data arrive. (Source attribution: Moscow Exchange)
On the trading floor of Moscow’s exchange, the opening dollar-to-ruble rate has already shown sensitivity to these expectations. After the previous session, the rate opened somewhat lower, with the dollar trading near the 93 ruble mark and the euro dipping below the 100 ruble line as investors reassessed risk and potential policy moves. Market participants are weighing a mix of domestic resilience and external pressures, including commodity prices, global monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical developments that could influence capital flows. The negotiating space for the ruble depends on how quickly export earnings translate into real demand for rubles and how decisively the Bank of Russia acts to anchor the currency’s fluctuations. (Source attribution: Moscow Exchange)
Analysts have repeatedly flagged a range of plausible scenarios. If foreign exchange controls aim to prevent rapid depreciation and if the current account continues to improve, the dollar could settle in a narrower band around the 85–90 ruble region. Conversely, any setback in export performance or a sudden shift in external funding conditions could hamper such a move. For investors and businesses, the key takeaway is that the ruble’s path remains highly conditional on the interplay between export strength, the balance of payments, and policy choices that influence liquidity and confidence in the currency. (Source attribution: Moscow Exchange)