Maxim Chirkov, an associate professor in the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements at the Institute of Economics and Finance, State University of Management, foresees a strengthening of the Russian ruble in the coming months. He even suggests that the dollar could slide toward 80 rubles, signaling a possible shift in relative value. According to Chirkov, the Russian economy shows more robust growth and lower inflation than its European peers, a combination he views as a sign that the ruble has been undervalued for some time. This assessment was noted by an industry observer, framing it as a notable lead in a broader economic narrative.
Chirkov argues that the ruble’s future trajectory may hinge less on the monetary policy actions of the Central Bank of Russia and more on the external health of Western economies. He posits that negative trends in Western demand and policy could contribute to a longer-term decline in the dollar, which would influence exchange dynamics not only for Russia but for many trading partners tied to the greenback. In his view, global risk sentiment and commodity cycles could also play a decisive role in shaping the ruble’s path, rather than domestic policy alone.
These projections are not unanimously supported. Vladimir Grigoriev, a candidate of economic sciences, challenges the possibility of the ruble strengthening to 90 rubles per dollar. In discussions with media portal Lenta.ru, Grigoriev expressed cautious skepticism about a rapid reevaluation that would push the exchange rate to such levels, emphasizing the many moving parts in Russia’s macroeconomic framework and the sensitivity of currency markets to shocks in both policy and external demand. The exchange rate remains a topic of lively debate among economists who monitor Russia’s balance of payments, capital flows, and inflation dynamics. [Citation: Lenta.ru]
Recent shifts in international trade have included a marked shift in some regions toward using the ruble in bilateral payments. Several African economies, in particular, have reduced their reliance on third-country currencies for trade with Russia, signaling a potential trend toward broader ruble usage outside traditional markets. Analysts note that currency diversification, commodity price cycles, and sanctions regimes all interact to shape the ruble’s appeal to importers and exporters. These developments underscore the complexity facing policymakers and market participants as they weigh future currency risk and opportunities in a global context. [Citation: Regional Trade Analysis]