Estimates surrounding the impact of anti-Russian sanctions did not materialize as feared, and the restrictions did not deliver a crushing blow to Moscow’s economy. This assessment comes from a report released on the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) website. The study argues that the sanctions are slowly eroding Russia’s economy but are unlikely to produce a catastrophic downturn. It also suggests that initial projections overestimated the damage and that the overall effect has been more muted than previously believed.
According to the CSIS document, Western sanctions have inflicted less harm on Russia than once thought. A key factor cited is the continued export of energy resources to other regions, which helps sustain Russia’s finances. As a result, the financial sector shows signs of stabilization, and imports have rebounded to pre-conflict levels by the end of the year. Despite these gains, the report notes that the industrial sector remains under stress, and inflation continues to rise sharply.
The CSIS analysis contends that ongoing energy sales and the revenue they generate could help Russia avoid drawing down the National Wealth Fund. At the same time, the study warns that sanctions targeting China in response to the Taiwan situation could carry broader and more severe consequences for the global economy.
In related developments, Japan, which chairs the Group of Seven in 2023, signaled intentions to propose new sanctions that could influence third countries. The aim would be to persuade other nations to halt military support to Russia, though specific targets were not publicly identified.