A notable shift in Atlantic cod stocks is drawing renewed attention to global fishery dynamics, with VARPE, the All-Russian Fisheries Industry Association, highlighting potential changes in market leadership for 2023. This assessment relies on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and reflects ongoing pressures on cod resources that could reshape production and trade patterns across major producing nations. The central claim is that, as world cod stocks tighten, Russia could surpass Norway in overall catch for the year, marking a significant moment in the North Atlantic fishing landscape. VARPE stresses that the trajectory of cod production depends not only on the sheer volume caught but also on the broader set of practices and channels that drive supply and demand. The organization, drawing on FAO statistics, notes Norway’s historically strong position appears challenged by current trends and by shifts in fishing methods and marketing approaches. — VARPE
As the global stock of cod continues to erode, the total world catch in 2023 is projected to fall toward a historical low, potentially around 1 million tonnes. Norway’s reported catch has come under pressure, dipping to roughly 278 thousand tonnes in the same period, while Russia’s catch has reached about 306 thousand tonnes. This divergence underscores how national strategies, regulatory environments, and fleet management choices can influence year-to-year outcomes in a volatile shared resource. Analysts point out that production volumes are only part of the story, with gear types, operating regimes, and promotional networks playing a decisive role in national share and revenue. — VARPE
German Zverev, who chairs VARPE, elaborates that the distribution of cod output from each country is shaped by multiple levers beyond raw harvest figures. He emphasizes that production methods, the efficiency of fleets, and the effectiveness of promotional channels all contribute to a country’s standing in the market. Norway is identified as a leading force in these ancillary dimensions, maintaining strong infrastructure, well-developed marketing avenues, and efficient processing chains that help sustain high value and access to key markets. These factors can alter the competitive balance even when catch volumes are relatively close, illustrating how quality control, product segmentation, and brand positioning matter in international seafood trade. — VARPE
FAO projections indicate that cod prices could firm or rise over the course of the year as world production contracts and demand remains relatively resilient. Such price dynamics often encourage customers to shift toward alternative, lower-cost whitefish options when cod prices are high. This substitution effect tends to redirect purchasing away from cod toward species like pollock, pangasius, and tilapia, which can offer similar textures or flavors at more accessible price points. The FAO commentary highlights that these shifts in consumer choice can influence fishing effort and stock recovery trajectories in the longer term, creating a feedback loop between market signals and harvest decisions. — FAO
In addition to the cod narrative, VARPE references data reported by Vedomosti, noting a marked expansion in Russia’s exports of salmon species to the Chinese market in 2022 compared with 2021. Exports of salmon, chum salmon, and pink salmon reportedly rose to about 73,800 tonnes, with the corresponding monetary value increasing to roughly $249.9 million. This rapid growth signals how a single country’s product mix and market access can shift substantially within a short period, shaping bilateral trade patterns and regional seafood supply. The contrast with cod volatility adds complexity to the global seafood economy, where demand, competition, and currency dynamics intersect with seasonal harvest cycles. — VARPE