The May 2023 budget outlook for Russia shows oil and gas revenue dipping to just under 8.1 billion rubles, according to a briefing from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. This figure frames a month in which energy-related income will contribute far less than typical expectations, highlighting the effect of market conditions and policy choices on the national ledger. [Source: Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation]
Looking back at April, initial projections indicated a shortfall of 113.6 billion rubles, a gap that ultimately narrowed to a 32.4 billion ruble deficit in actual receipts. The variance between forecast and result points to shifting revenue dynamics during the month, with tax collections and commodity income diverging from early estimates. [Source: Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation]
In March, the published data show a substantial budget shortfall of 93.1 billion rubles. The pattern of these recurring gaps underscores ongoing volatility in the budget framework and the sensitivity of the fiscal plan to energy markets and macroeconomic conditions. [Source: Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation]
The department noted that a total of 40.4 billion rubles would be directed to foreign currency operations, with transactions scheduled from May 10, 2023, to June 6, 2023. Such operations are part of efforts to manage exchange reserves and balance sheet exposures in a volatile external environment. [Source: Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation]
Early April communications from the Ministry signaled a state budget deficit for the first quarter of 2023 at 2.4 trillion rubles. Preliminary figures for January through March indicated expenditures around 8.077 trillion rubles, a level that compares with the first quarter of the previous year as a notable 34 percent higher. The trajectory reflects deliberate fiscal expansion in the early months of the year and the continued challenge of aligning revenues with ambitious spending plans. [Source: Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation]
Earlier reporting showed that in January and February 2023 the Russian budget experienced a renewal of about 2.217 trillion rubles driven by non-oil and gas revenues. The pace was cooled by a roughly 9 percent decline in income tax receipts compared with the same period in 2022, indicating the shifting composition of federal receipts and the weight of non-energy sources in sustaining the budget. [Source: Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation]