On October 26, the State Duma gave preliminary approval to the draft federal budget for 2024–2026. The plan shows a notable rise in both revenue and spending, by about 22% and 16% respectively, compared with the previous period.
In voting, 320 deputies supported the draft while 80 opposed it.
The government presented the document to parliament on September 29. The second and third readings are scheduled for November 15 and 17.
Rising costs
Total expenditures are projected to reach 36.66 trillion rubles in 2024, 34.382 trillion rubles in 2025, and 35.587 trillion rubles in 2026.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov noted that budget outlays will double over five years. He reminded MPs that compared with 2019, spending has already doubled, and in five years next year’s outlays will essentially double again.
Defense spending is set to rise from 21.2% of the budget in 2023 to 29.4% in 2024. This marks a 68% year-to-year increase from 6.4 trillion rubles in 2023 to 10.8 trillion rubles in 2024. For the first time, defense will outpace social policy in total funding (8 trillion rubles). About 3.4 trillion rubles (9.2%) is planned for national security and law enforcement.
Targeted support for families with children is a top priority. The budget allocates 4.4 trillion rubles in 2024–2026 for a single monthly aid that is expected to reach over 10 million people. The government also plans 1.6 trillion rubles for maternity capital and more than 482 billion rubles for housing programs aimed at families with children.
What about income?
Federal budget revenues are projected to be 35.065 trillion rubles in 2024, 33.552 trillion rubles in 2025, and 34.051 trillion rubles in 2026.
Siluanov emphasized that current policy aims to shield the economy and finances from external risks, noting that sanctions remain in place. He added that revenue streams are highly sensitive to external factors, and the three-year budget is prepared under rules that safeguard expenditure levels and prevent imbalances.
The minister also highlighted that revenue growth has surpassed forecasts in every year, with indirect revenues consistently rising. He expressed confidence that 2024 goals will be met, given the management measures already in place.
In 2024, 1.3 trillion rubles will be drawn from the National Welfare Fund to balance the budget. A portion of the budget deficit for 2024–2026 will be financed through government borrowing.
Oil revenues
Before the Federation Council, changes were approved to include a budget rule based on a base oil price of $60 per barrel. The bill was submitted to the State Duma along with the draft federal budget.
The document specifies that the base price of oil will be indexed at 2% annually starting in 2027. It also calls for determining base revenues from oil and gas along with the export variations of AI-92 fuel and fifth-class diesel.
The basic export price of natural gas is set at $250 per thousand cubic meters, with a 2% annual indexation beginning in 2027. Any additional treasury receipts above the base price from oil shipments abroad will flow into the National Welfare Fund. The Finance Ministry suggests moving next year to calculate budget parameters not from oil and gas revenues alone, but from the base oil price of $60 per barrel.