Oil production remains the primary driver of budget revenues for the Russian Federation, a point highlighted by Alexander Frolov, deputy director at the National Energy Institute and a familiar voice at the InfoTEK analytical center. He notes that the financial gains from oil and gas are deeply tied to the structure of imbalances in the sector, with a significant share stemming from the extraction of crude oil, often referred to as “black gold” by industry observers.
According to Frolov, the majority of oil and natural gas receipts come from imbalance allocations, a mechanism linked to the mining of oil. He stresses that as much as 70% of total oil and gas budget receipts can be attributed to the mineral extraction tax levied specifically on oil. This tax plays a central role in funding state revenues and shaping annual fiscal planning.
In his assessment of the year-to-date results, the expert points out that the mining tax on oil alone has contributed 5.99 trillion rubles in the first ten months. He emphasizes that this figure represents two-thirds of the projected annual volume of oil and gas revenues, underscoring the pivotal impact of oil taxation on the overall energy sector budget.
Frolov also notes a natural shift in the share of revenues from oil and natural gas versus natural gas itself. He explains that the observed decline in oil and gas receipts relates to a forecasted drop in pipeline exports of blue fuel by at least 100 billion cubic meters in comparison with 2021. This anticipated reduction in export volumes contributes to the evolving revenue mix for the sector and the state.
Industry observers report that the Ministry of Finance data for the first ten months of 2023 show oil and natural gas revenues at 7 trillion 210 billion rubles, marking a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%. Nevertheless, monthly momentum in oil and gas revenues remains above the base target, which is set at 8 trillion rubles per year. In October, revenues surpassed the equivalent month in the previous year by about 27%, highlighting ongoing fluctuations within the energy fiscal framework and the resilience of the sector’s revenue streams. (Source: Ministry of Finance and expert commentary from fiscal analysts, attribution noted where applicable.)