In October 2024, Russian used-car prices are projected to rise by as much as 15 percent. The projection comes from industry observers who referenced Avto.ru and its sales and development leadership while discussing market dynamics in the autumn period.
The analysis explains that the ongoing strength of new-car sales expands the used-car selection, and as recycling fees begin to rise alongside higher import volumes, the downward pressure on used-car prices eases. The forecast indicates September may hold steady, but a noticeable uptick in October could push values higher by up to 15 percent, reflecting mixed supply and demand signals rather than a simple trend reversal.
Earlier, the Russian Association of Automobile Dealers noted that the government is considering delaying the next stage of recycling-fee indexation for five years. The association stresses that increasing the recycling levy carries several substantial risks for the industry. It highlights that prices for passenger vehicles have already doubled in the past two and a half years, and a similar increase is anticipated by 2030. Against that backdrop, the association argues that higher recycling costs will likely erode buyers’ purchasing power by five to seven percent, potentially capping new-car sales to a level unlikely to support rapid expansion of domestic production, spare parts availability, or broader industry growth.
Anticipation of higher recycling fees has already influenced the market. From October 1, the size of the recycling fee could rise by roughly 70 to 85 percent. In the run-up, consumer demand surged, with July seeing a 42.4 percent jump in car purchases and a monthly total of about 136,200 vehicles moved off dealer lots. The market reaction demonstrates how cost signaling from policy shifts can rapidly reshape buying behavior, even before policy changes take full effect.
Historically, Chinese brands have earned a strong following among buyers in Russia, particularly in times of shifting policy and price signals. This preference underscores how price, availability, and brand mix interact to determine consumer choices in the used-car segment during periods of policy transition and currency volatility. Analysts suggest that careful monitoring of recycling-fee trajectories, import-channel flows, and the pace of new-car deliveries will be essential to understanding price dynamics in the coming months. In practical terms, buyers may see a window of opportunity as used-car inventories align with rising demand from those seeking value, while sellers weigh the prospect of higher costs and tighter financing conditions.