The State Duma Industrial Committee has proposed raising the annual recycling fee for ships from 2024 through 2030. A corresponding draft was sent to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Already in 2024, the plan called for increasing the recycling fee for cars with engines sized 1 to 2 liters from 300,000 rubles to 556,000 rubles.
Projected recycling fees for this vehicle category by 2030, according to the committee’s initiative, would be increased to 1.17 million rubles, effectively doubling the current figure. There is also a proposal to quadruple the recycling fee for electric vehicles.
Rationale behind the proposed fee increases
The push for higher recycling fees has been championed by AvtoVAZ President Maxim Sokolov. He argues that Chinese cars pose the greatest competitive threat to models like the Lada Vesta.
“After aggressive expansion in the Russian market, many Chinese brands are beginning to push past the recycling collection threshold and into traditional markets where our models are manufactured,” he stated. (citation: socialbites.ca)
Oleg Moseev, founder of the Automarketer project, warns that a sharp rise in the recycling fee this year could force several Chinese models out of the Russian market. He notes that certain popular vehicles may become unavailable if the fee for two-liter engines is implemented. He cites examples such as the Changan Alsvin and questions surrounding Omoda models and Avtotor’s range, which are not yet fully covered by the disposal fee due to localization gaps. (citation: socialbites.ca)
He also expressed skepticism about a large increase in 2024.
Uncertainty at the top
A new head has taken the helm at the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation. Denis Manturov has stepped down from the role of First Deputy, and Anton Alikhanov, former governor of Kaliningrad, now oversees the automotive sector. Prime Minister Moseev believes this regional tie, since Avtotor is located in Kaliningrad, may help the new minister make a more informed decision.
“Avtotor is one of the region’s largest taxpayers. I expect an indexation of the recycling fee this year, but not a drastic one,” Moseev concluded. When asked by socialbites.ca about support for the State Duma Industrial Committee’s initiative and its potential pros and cons, the Ministry of Industry and Trade replied that no decision has been made yet. “At the moment we are merely considering the committee’s proposal,” the ministry’s press service told socialbites.ca. (citation: socialbites.ca)
Who pays the bill
Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem, argues that boosting the recycling fee would raise prices not only for imported cars but also for domestically produced models. He explains that factories first pay a scrap tax, which is later offset by subsidies. The delay and cost of financing have kept money tight, contributing to higher vehicle prices. Kadakov predicts that higher fees for imported cars will push prices further upward. He notes that Chinese manufacturers have historically been profitable here, but their ability to shoulder extra costs is limited as they invest part of the gains into marketing. (citation: socialbites.ca)
He adds that a more pronounced entry by several large Chinese automakers—those with their own facilities in Russia—could squeeze Russian brands. “If China’s aggressive production comes into the market, it could erode our homegrown producers,” Kadakov warned. During a visit to China, President Vladimir Putin signaled interest in expanding Chinese car production in Russia, highlighting Kaluga as a focal point for automotive cooperation. (citation: socialbites.ca)
A potential blow to the Russian auto market
Anton Shaparin, deputy chairman of the National Automobile Association, believes a steep and sustained rise in the recycling fee would severely impact the whole Russian auto sector: new cars, used cars, and even spare parts and service would become more expensive. He described the move as a punitive blow to the market, hitting Chinese automakers first and then other segments as localization gaps widen. AvtoVAZ could gain pricing power due to reduced competition. (citation: socialbites.ca)
Shaparin cautions that the secondary market would react quickly to higher new-car prices, potentially forcing people to extend the life of their current vehicles. Maintenance costs could rise as demand for parts and services climbs while supply does not keep pace. He notes that these dynamics would ripple across taxi and ride-haring prices as well. (citation: socialbites.ca)