As autumn settles in, car makers in Russia are adjusting their pricing playbooks, according to Renat Tyukteev, deputy general director of new car sales at the Avilon automobile group, speaking with socialbites.ca. The shift signals a broader recalibration of how discounts, sales incentives, and sticker prices interact as the market responds to evolving costs and regulatory steps.
Tyukteev noted that some brands are trimming discounts while others push volume and raise retail prices. Major importers are participating in the transition and are planning to modify sales terms, a move that could ripple through dealer networks and consumer choices across North America as a point of comparison for policy-driven pricing dynamics, according to his assessment.
In recent months, AvtoVAZ has raised Lada prices for the fourth time in a year. September price lists show the basic Comfort variant of Moskvich 6, slated for production in 2023, discontinued, lifting the model’s starting price by 64 thousand rubles. The GAS brand from China joined the trend, lifting prices by 100–150 thousand rubles on the GS3 and GS8. Similar increases appeared for models from Geely, Belgee, Chery, and UAZ, among others, underscoring how model lineup changes interact with pricing strategies in a shifting market.
Dealership activity has surged. In early September, Russia logged 38.1 thousand cars sold, the strongest figure in five months. Analysts cited by Autostat for socialbites.ca attribute the demand spike to expectations of higher recycling fees, which would push car prices higher. This pattern is a reminder for buyers in Canada and the United States to monitor how policy steps influence inventories, financing terms, and total ownership costs.
Border crossings with China have grown busy as importers race to bring in as many vehicles as possible before price hikes take effect. Andrey Olkhovsky, CEO of the Avtodom Group, believes the anticipated recycling fee increase will spur sales through the end of September, a dynamic with potential parallels in North American markets where tariff and incentive structures also shape turnover
“Since autumn began, demand has recovered as buyers anticipate higher prices,” he observed. “It’s reasonable to expect demand to rise further by month’s end.”
What will happen?
The recycling fee in Russia is set for a substantial rise, moving from a 70%–85% increase. For engines with a capacity of one to two liters, the fee could climb from 300.6 thousand rubles to 556 thousand rubles. Engines of 2–3 liters or more would see the fee nearly double, from 556 thousand rubles to 2.2 million rubles, with the final amount depending on engine size. Projections also point to a fourfold increase in the recycling collection by 2030. These shifts illustrate how environmental policy and fiscal design can intersect to influence pricing trajectories across markets, a topic watched by Canadian and American observers when considering similar reforms at home.
Concerns about legality
The Association of Russian Automobile Dealers (ROAD) argues that the recycling collection, in its current form, conflicts with the law. This view is reflected in a letter to the Minister of Industry and Trade, Anton Alikhanov, and echoes a broader debate highlighted by the Accounts Chamber’s recent conclusions on recycling collection. Observers note that the policy’s claimed environmental aims may not fully align with the fiscal role the fee serves in practice.
From a regulatory perspective, the state’s emphasis appears to be generating revenue through the recycling scheme rather than solely advancing environmental safety as defined by law. Igor Chikin, ROAD’s director general, adds that the fee is intended to fund recycling rather than function as a vehicle tax.
How much will prices rise?
Once the recycling collection increases are implemented, car prices are expected to rise substantially. Analysts predict that the average price of cars with engines up to three liters could move up by 100–200 thousand rubles this fall. Heavier engines are likely to see even larger increases. Brands with deep localization may experience more gradual pricing shifts, while others will adjust more aggressively, according to Tyukteev of Avilon. In North American terms, this mirrors how localized supply chain costs and regulatory changes press up list prices and reshape consumer expectations.
Some models may not jump in price immediately due to large inventories at warehouses. Dealers and distributors still hold many cars bought before the scrap tax increase. Nevertheless, price hikes seem inevitable as foreign manufacturers pass higher costs to consumers, a trend echoed by current corporate margins. Some brands may hold prices for a period if sales targets for 2024 are uncertain, while others might accept small losses to hit volume goals, a pattern that may resonate with auto buyers in Canada and the United States facing similar budgeting challenges.
Industry analyst Pyotr Bakanov notes that major brands tend to avoid alarming customers with abrupt price restructurings, spreading increases over several months. He adds that buyers may pivot to lower-priced models or explore the secondary market where prices are rising too, a behavior seen in North American markets during shifts in policy or supply constraints.
Chikin of ROAD argues that higher recycling fees could shrink the supply of new cars, with vehicles increasingly perceived as premium items. He predicts a continued decline in new-car market share through 2030, from about 14% to 5–7% as pricing pressure persists and demand shifts toward used or affiliated channels in response to cost changes.
Across Canada and the United States, markets are watching how shifting policies influence auto pricing. While the Russian situation involves a domestic recycling scheme, North American buyers often face pricing shaped by supply chains, tariffs, and regional incentives. The current dynamics highlight how policy changes can ripple through global auto costs, affecting both new and used car markets on both sides of the Atlantic, and offering a useful lens for analysts tracking cross-border pricing and consumer behavior.
At a glance, the interplay between regulation, incentives, and market demand in these scenarios demonstrates the complex choreography behind price evolution. For shoppers in Canada and the United States, staying informed about potential changes in recycling fees, import policies, and local incentives can help in planning purchases, budgeting, and negotiating terms with dealers.