Forecasts for car prices in Russia point to a potential rise of around 30 percent in the coming months. The primary driver of this growth is expected to be the recycling fee, with projections suggesting the rates will be increased and reviewed on an annual basis, according to autonews.ru, citing Anton Shaparin, vice president of the National Automobile Association. The message from the expert underscores that the initial uptick in the recycling fee could immediately push the price of basic Chinese cars higher by roughly 300 thousand rubles, which translates to about a 10 to 20 percent increase over current prices. In addition, AvtoVAZ is anticipated to raise prices for Ladas by a wide margin, with the model variations affecting the final figure, ranging from about one hundred thousand to two hundred thousand rubles.
Shaparin also weighed in on broader economic factors, noting that inflation and exchange rate movements will further compound these changes. He predicted that, when combined with the recycling fee adjustments, new car prices in Russia could climb by roughly one third by the next year.
Earlier, the Russian Association of Automobile Dealers, ROAD, reported that the government considered delaying the indexation of the recycling fee for cars for a span of five years. The association stressed that a higher recycling collection rate carries multiple significant risks for the automotive sector. It was highlighted that passenger car prices in Russia have already doubled over the past 2.5 years, and projections suggest a further similar increase by 2030. Taking into account the expected growth in the recycling fee, consumers may face only a marginal ability to purchase a vehicle, with estimates suggesting affordability at about 5 to 7 percent and new car sales unlikely to exceed 600 thousand units. ROAD emphasized that this scenario would influence the development of new car production, while spare parts and the broader automotive supply chain would be less affected.
From October 1, there is an anticipated 70 to 85 percent rise in the recycling fee. In anticipation of this shift, consumer demand surged as many Russians rushed to buy cars, driving a notable increase in orders. In July, demand rose by 42.4 percent, resulting in a monthly total of 136.2 thousand vehicles sold.
Earlier coverage noted that Russians are continuing to accumulate a record pace of car loans as part of their vehicle purchases, reflecting broader financing trends within the market.