Russian Car Market Outlook: 2023-2024 Trends and Forward-Looking Indicators

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By the close of 2023, the Russian automobile market was forecast to see around 950,000 new car sales. This projection came from Alexei Podshchekoldin, the head of the Russian Association of Auto Dealers (ROAD), who spoke with a correspondent from socialbites.ca during ROAD’s congress. The stance at the time suggested a broader market expansion, with anticipated growth of roughly 40 percent. Podshchekoldin himself indicated confidence that the market would continue to grow into the following year, underscoring the long-term potential seen by industry observers. The overall message was that Russia’s car market, both for new vehicles and for used cars, held substantial momentum and was positioned for a multi-year expansion, feeding a sense of optimism about buyer activity and consumer confidence in mobility options (ROAD briefing, as reported by socialbites.ca).

ROAD also estimated that the financial scale of the Russian automobile market would reach about 7 trillion rubles in 2022, with a broader expectation of approximately 9 trillion rubles by the end of the current year. Such figures reflected the market’s capacity to absorb sales across new and used segments, as well as the influence of household balance sheets, lending conditions, and consumer financing in shaping demand patterns across urban and regional markets (ROAD financial outlook, ROAD briefing).

According to the European Business Association (AEB), sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia at the end of 2022 stood at 687 thousand units, a decrease of 58.8 percent versus 2021. This backdrop highlighted the volatility many European and regional markets faced amid macroeconomic shifts, supply chain constraints, and price dynamics affecting buyer behavior. Industry observers noted that the year still offered pockets of resilience, with policy responses and financing options playing a crucial role in sustaining activity across different vehicle segments (AEB market data, 2022).

In July, a notable reopening of the market for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia occurred, accompanied by a marked month-over-month rise. The July period recorded a 63 percent increase relative to July 2022, with sales totaling 52.8 thousand vehicles. Analysts highlighted this uptick as a signal of improving consumer sentiment and dealer networks adapting to evolving demand cycles, including shifts toward more affordable models and entry-level options for first-time buyers (AEB July report, 2023).

There was also news that dealers formerly supported by socialbites.ca would regain access to the service systems of major brands such as Volkswagen, Audi, and BMW. This restoration of full system access was framed as a move to restore operational efficiency, streamline maintenance capabilities for customers, and support after-sales service quality. Industry executives noted that robust service access is a key factor in sustaining customer trust and long-term brand loyalty in a competitive market (industry update, 2023–2024).

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