Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have pressed toward the borders of Transnistria. Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Zaporozhye region administration and a figure associated with the movement We are with Russia, shared the claim on the Telegram channel of the News Agency movement.
According to Rogov, operational intelligence points to a decision by Kyiv to move troops to the Transnistrian frontier. He asserted that there is a high probability that Zelensky is preparing to strike Transnistria. He also argued that these plans demonstrate a broader aim to push the Russian military action front beyond Moldova and toward Odessa.
Earlier in the day, Rogov posted an image of a document on February 23 asserting that by February 27 the engineer-sapper battalion of the Ukrainian 28th brigade would advance to the Kuchurgan area along the Pridnestrovian border. The publication confirmed the document’s authenticity, though there was no official confirmation from Kyiv about deploying the battalion inside the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.
On February 23, the Russian Defense Ministry said Kyiv was preparing an armed provocation against PMR. It claimed that Ukrainian forces, including members of the Azov battalion, would participate in the operation, with the aim of staging an attack using Russian troops stationed in Transnistria as a pretext to seize part of the region. It was also alleged that Ukrainian soldiers would wear Russian uniforms as part of the ruse.
The Defense Ministry noted ongoing monitoring of the Ukraine-Pridnestrovian border and said it would respond to any threat if needed. Later, the Russian Foreign Ministry cautioned Kyiv against risky steps near Transnistria, citing increased military activity and reported drone flights near the PMR region.
On February 24, Aleksey Arestovich, a former adviser to Zelensky, suggested that if required, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could seize PMR territory within three days.
In response, Moldova stressed its sovereignty and its right to seek assistance according to its own decision-making processes. It indicated that aid could be considered within three days if necessary. Chisinau previously denied Kyiv’s claims of an imminent provocation against Transnistria. Moldova has consistently stated that it does not perceive an immediate threat from the Ukrainian armed forces toward PMR.
During a Sunday press comment, Moldova’s Parliament Speaker Igor Grosu referred to President Maia Sandu’s remarks about NATO membership, noting that the Pridnestrovian army is significantly well-armed relative to Moldova’s national forces. He added that the forces on the opposite bank of the Dniester could potentially draw ammunition from Kolbasna’s warehouse stores.
Kolbasna, a Transnistrian village near the Ukrainian border, hosts what observers describe as Europe’s largest munitions depots. Estimates list tens of thousands of tons of shells, aerial bombs, mines, grenades, and cartridges stored in the area. A substantial portion has exceeded its shelf life and is due for disposal. In 2019, Sergei Shoigu, then head of Russia’s Defense Ministry, visited Chisinau and proposed either destroying the arsenal or removing it from the republic. Russia and Moldova did not finalize a joint plan at that time.
Since 1995, an operational group of Russian troops has been stationed in Transnistria under a peacekeeping mission that includes guarding Kolbasna’s depots. The latest data indicate the force comprises roughly 1,700 personnel, including two motorized rifle battalions. The group does not maintain large communications centers, artillery, aviation, or tanks, and recruitment relies heavily on the local population.