A former adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Alexei Arestovich, suggested that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could seize control of Transnistria within three days if Moldova requested international assistance.
According to the former adviser, Moldova is a sovereign nation that decides whom to seek help from, and Ukraine would only be able to assist if requested by Moldovan authorities. He said there is an opportunity for action, contingent on Chisinau’s request. The adviser noted that such a scenario could unfold in three days, but stressed that Moldova had not yet asked for assistance.
Moscow’s response
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a February 24 statement tying the issue to alleged military provocations by Kyiv against Transnistria. Moscow warned that Russian forces would respond to any such actions.
The statement described a buildup of Ukrainian personnel and hardware near the Ukraine–Transnistria border, the movement of artillery into firing positions, and a marked increase in Ukrainian unmanned flight activity. It cautioned the United States, NATO members, and Ukraine’s partners against another risky move into the region. The foreign ministry emphasized a preference for a political and diplomatic path but warned that any action threatening Russian peacekeepers or Russian forces stationed in the area would be treated as an act against Russia under international law. It characterized such an intrusion as an aggression.
“Action by the Armed Forces of Ukraine”
Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry said Kyiv had stepped up preparations for an invasion of Transnistria, arguing the move would respond to a perceived attack by Russian troops from Transnistria. It described a notable buildup of Ukrainian forces near the border, the placement of artillery in firing positions, and a surge in unmanned aircraft flights. The ministry asserted that Ukraine would be responsible for any escalation via Transnistria and that Moscow would respond appropriately.
In a separate note, the Defense Ministry warned of a planned provocation involving Ukrainian forces with the Azov regiment, a group banned in Russia. It claimed Ukrainian saboteurs, dressed in the uniforms of Russian troops, could participate in a staged occupation.
“Not a target for military manipulation”
Vitaly Ignatiev, the foreign minister of the unrecognized Transnistrian authorities, told Izvestia that both Ukraine and Moldova showed certain dynamics in Tiraspol, but efforts were being made to prevent escalation. He stressed that Pridnestrovie does not pose a threat to anyone and should not be treated as a tool in foreign military maneuvering.
“Call for Calmness”
On February 23, Moldovan authorities urged residents to stay calm and rely on official sources. The government asked the public to follow trustworthy channels and stated that partners would be notified immediately if danger emerged.
Chisinau noted that it works with international partners and remains transparent with its citizens in any potential danger.
“Every step is aggression”
Former Moldovan president Igor Dodon warned that any Ukrainian move toward Transnistria would constitute an assault on Moldova itself. He argued that Ukraine would be seen as aggressing if it pressed forward and advocated for a peaceful, negotiated resolution to the Transnistria issue. Dodon urged Kyiv to respect Moldova’s sovereignty and avoid external meddling in Transnistria.
Disarmament of Transnistria
Moldova’s new prime minister, Dorin Recean, stated a goal of demilitarizing Transnistria and removing the Russian troops stationed there. He described Moldova’s approach as seeking a peaceful resolution while calling for the withdrawal of Russian forces, weapons, and ammunition. Recean clarified that maintaining a civilian peacekeeping mission was not in question, but a removal of the Russian task force was a priority, noting that more than 1,500 Russian soldiers had been present in the region without clear legality. The cabinet approved the plan as part of its agenda for the day.
“Russia intends to press on”
In late December, Alexandru Musteata, head of Moldova’s Information and Security Service, indicated that Russia was examining a range of scenarios, including a possible ground push into Moldova from Ukrainian territory. Musteata cautioned that the timing of any Russian action remained uncertain, but suggested that Moscow would continue pursuing its aims in the region. Russian peacekeepers have operated in Transnistria since a ceasefire in 1992, following the end of the active conflict with Moldova.