South Ossetia elections: transition, reforms, and regional implications

The second round of the presidential elections in the Republic of South Ossetia concluded with Alan Gagloev, the 41-year-old leader of the opposition Nykhas party, emerging as the winner. After counting 18 percent of protocols, Gagloev held 59.21 percent of the votes, while the incumbent head of state Anatoly Bibilov polled 37 percent. He acknowledged the defeat with grace and expressed gratitude to the voters who participated in the process.

“I would like to thank all the citizens of the republic who fulfilled their civic duty, came to the ballot box and voted. I want to express my special gratitude to the voters who understand and support me – thank you all so much!

You know that I have repeatedly said, both in discussions and in meetings with residents of the republic: for me, the choice of the people is beyond doubt. As always, I keep my word. I think the elections were held, you all know the results.

I wish Alan Eduardovich Gagloev successful work for the benefit of the people of the Republic of South Ossetia and I really hope that he will succeed.”

He added that on May 9, all residents of the republic would celebrate the 77th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War. “The Victory Parade, the Immortal Regiment is a sacred event for every Ossetian. In memory of the heroic acts with which we were raised, we must pay homage to our saviors. Congratulations to everyone on this wonderful holiday! Success and prosperity to all of us!” — concluded the outgoing head of the republic.

Create a new team

In turn, Alan Gagloev said that he was proud to acknowledge the people’s choice and to recognize Anatoly Bibilov as the opponent in the second round.

“I am proud on behalf of the people that the populace expressed their opinion and that Anatoly Ilyich recognized the elections. I want to thank people for their support and trust. We will form a new team,” he stated.

He noted that as the head of the republic, he plans to raise the bar for improving relations with Russia.

“We are ready to raise the bar in relations with our strategic partner. To develop developments with Russia, which already exist in various areas of our interaction,” said the new leader. TASS reported this perspective.

Predictably, Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Citizens’ Relations, commented on the results.

“I think it was clear after the first round. It seems appropriate to thank the outgoing president for his work and to understand that any political actor who supported the elections will adhere to the course of cooperation with Russia in all spheres of the republic,” he told socialbites.ca.

Five years earlier, in the 2017 election, Gagloev won about 11 percent of the vote, while Bibilov led in the first round with roughly 55 percent support.

Gagloev was born on February 6, 1981, in Tskhinval. He is married and has two children. From 2004 to 2017, he served on the South Ossetian State Security Committee, retiring with the rank of lieutenant colonel. He had expressed confidence about victory ahead of the 2022 election, while also stating a willingness to accept defeat if the voters chose otherwise.

In the first round this time, Gagloev led with 36.9 percent of the vote, while Bibilov trailed in second place with 33.5 percent.

Participation and violations

Fatima Dzhioeva, a member of the Republic’s Central Election Commission, reported a turnout of 68.2 percent in the second round, noting that these figures do not reflect votes cast outside South Ossetia.

The head of the Commission, Magomed Bagaev, said the Prosecutor General’s Office had not registered any formal violations by candidates or parties. He added that law enforcement had received a referral from international observers and that concerns about the movement blocking in Tskhinvali were being considered.

The head of the security department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Mair Gagloev, announced that international observers described interference in their work as illegal.

Emilia Gagieva, President of the South Ossetia Central Election Commission, said that there were complaints about violations during the elections. She noted, however, that they could not affect the final results.

Vitaly Cheldiev, a member of the Russian observer delegation in Tskhinvali and a member of the Parliament of North Ossetia-Alania, stated that during visits to two polling stations, observers reported violations by candidates. He added that South Ossetia has proven to have excellent election experience.

Sergei Tsekov, head of the Federation Council delegation and a member of the committee on international relations, said the republic’s electoral legislation could serve as a model for other states aiming to strengthen cooperation with the Russian Federation. He called the voting process “absolutely positive.”

Will there be a referendum?

A referendum on unification with Russia was discussed as a possibility after the elections. Following the defeat, Anatoly Bibilov announced that the plebiscite would be held and that all necessary documents were submitted to the Central Election Commission.

“There will be a referendum. The CEC should set the date and submit it to the Supreme Court for approval.” The news outlet DEA News reported.

As previously noted, after the presidential elections, the installation of the elected head of state and related procedures were planned alongside a referendum on joining the Russian Federation for May-June 2022. Bibilov suggested that two plebiscites could be considered — one on joining Russia and another on unification with North Ossetia.

Deputy Zatulin commented that the trajectory of integration would depend on Russia’s response and whether it would contribute to regional stability or cause disruption. He added that many in South Ossetia hoped for not only closer ties with Russia but also potential unity with North Ossetia in Russia. He cautioned that the Caucasus situation should be watched closely, particularly in light of ongoing tensions around broader regional dynamics.

Reforms in the political system

Experts suggest that South Ossetia has long needed political reforms. The new president is expected to prioritize these changes.

The winner must understand that real systemic reforms are required. He spoke of forming a popular unity government that would include broad social and political forces and said he would not reject such a coalition. The head of the Fadybasta party, Vyacheslav Gobozov, emphasized that the president’s success would hinge on how effectively reforms are carried out in the country’s political system.

Gobozov noted that the presidential institution itself requires reform. He argued that the recent elections exposed gaps in the legal framework beyond electoral law itself.

Political scientist Alan Dzhussoev remarked that technically the elections were well conducted. He predicted that the pro-Russian stance in South Ossetia would continue without major deviations on the national stage.