State Duma deputy Sheremet, representing Crimea, expresses a firm belief that not only Kherson but the entire Ukrainian state will eventually come under Russian influence. He argues that, in time, Russian forces could move as far as Odessa from the Nikolaev region, and that referendums would follow where residents choose their future aligned with Moscow’s leadership.
“The southern territories of Ukraine were historically part of the Russian Empire, and their reunification with Russia is inevitable,” Sheremet states.
Nonetheless, the deputy adds that it would be premature to organize a referendum in any of the areas currently under Russian control. “We must complete special operations and ensure security first. We need to create conditions for people to make a balanced and democratic decision,” he notes.
As Sheremet points out, the presence of missiles in cities could complicate people’s ability to make such a responsible choice.
In Russia, a referendum on annexing the Kherson region could occur alongside discussions about the DPR, LPR, and South Ossetia. One proposed timeframe mentioned was September 11, 2022, suggested by Nikolai Novichkov, a State Duma deputy from the Fair Russia – Patriots – For the Truth party.
“I see this as a realistic scenario; holding a referendum in September is possible. It could take place even before the end of the special operation, and I see no obstacles,” he says.
However, Senator Andrei Klimov explains in an interview that a referendum may not be required for the Russian Federation to incorporate Kherson or other regions. “When a region requests to join, a local referendum can be included in the process, and the leadership of the Russian Federation decides on eligibility before an agreement is signed, with the approval of both parliaments. All Russian citizens over 18 have the right to elect officials, so the president, parliament, and the Constitutional Court ultimately determine the steps forward for the country,” Klimov states.
The President of South Ossetia, Anatoly Bibilov, who recently lost a presidential election, held a referendum on July 17 to join Russia. He described joining the Russian Federation as an “old dream” and an “aspiration” of the Ossetian people, proclaiming, “We are going home, we are going to Russia,” while signing the referendum decree.
The newly elected president of South Ossetia, Alan Gagloev, who takes office on May 20, does not oppose the referendum, but says it is essential to reach specific agreements with Moscow first to avoid complicating a difficult geopolitical situation. The Kremlin has reacted cautiously, noting that it respects the will of the South Ossetian people.
On May 14, State Duma deputy Artur Taymazov announced that South Ossetia would follow Crimea’s path toward unification with Russia, stating, “If we have decided to hold a referendum, we are moving toward reunification.”
“Russia is pursuing this referendum path in South Ossetia right now,” suggests Konstantin Zatulin, Special Representative of the State Duma for Immigration and Citizenship. He notes that Bibilov did not act decisively and argues this move reflects a desire to progress, though it may appear awkward to some observers.
At the same time, neither Georgian authorities nor Ukrainian authorities recognize the legitimacy of the referendums. The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has called the discussions on a referendum in South Ossetia unacceptable.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asserted that Kyiv will never recognize Crimea as part of Russia and will not accept any seizure of Donbass. He also warned that Ukraine would halt negotiations in the event of a referendum in territories controlled by Russian forces. By May 11, the Kremlin reported that talks with Ukraine were progressing slowly and with limited effectiveness.
Sheremet, a deputy from Crimea, says that the recognition of Crimea and Donbass by Ukraine, alongside rejecting any encroachments on those lands, remains a condition for ending the Russian military operation. He adds that Zelensky has reportedly refused to agree to these terms at the behest of American leadership.
The deputy further contends that Zelensky’s stance on Donbass and Crimea no longer concerns many, predicting a forthcoming shift in attention as regional dynamics evolve. He says this stance will soon fade from public focus as other priorities take center stage. Yefim Fiks, the Crimean parliament’s first vice-president, echoes a similar sentiment, comparing recognition of Crimea by Ukraine to a stop sign for a rabbit and vowing to focus on the region’s own affairs.
The elected leader of South Ossetia, Alan Gagloev, is not opposed to a referendum but emphasizes the need for specific understandings with Moscow beforehand to prevent aggravating a tense geopolitical climate. The Kremlin has remained cautious, acknowledging the South Ossetian people’s voice without rushing to final judgments.
These debates unfold as regional leaders weigh potential paths toward closer alignment with Russia, while other parties and international actors watch closely for any shift in status, legitimacy, or military and political consequences. The broader conversation centers on sovereignty, self-determination, and the practical aspects of governance in contested territories, with important implications for regional stability and future negotiations.