In 2022, the relationship between Russia and the United States entered a near-freeze, with only a narrow channel of communication remaining open, according to Kommersant. The publication notes that what began as talk of high-level, face-to-face discussions between the presidents gradually faded after the recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and the subsequent deployment of troops to the region. The conflict effectively severed direct channels along the main corridor into Ukraine.
From that point, the narrative continues, the two powers managed their dealings through intermediaries in intelligence and defense circles. These actors handled bilateral issues and repeatedly prevented any outright escalation, acting as a firewall between the two governments. Reflecting the ongoing friction, the article points to two prisoner exchanges that occurred between the two nations last year. In December, the United States appointed a new ambassador to Moscow who arrived with extensive knowledge of Russia and its dynamics, signaling a shift in diplomatic posture.
The report also notes that the top diplomats, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have spoken only once by phone since February 24. The call occurred on a date that Washington initiated, underscoring the chilly communication climate that has prevailed for months.
Former Russian ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov expressed a stark assessment: the current state of bilateral relations resembles an Ice Age, a period of prolonged standstill. Yet he emphasized that the United States does not seek a complete rupture with Moscow, indicating a preference for managing tensions rather than severing ties entirely.
In discussions across the Federation Council, some observers have described the ongoing Russia–West dynamic as an Ice War, a phrase used to capture the sense of standoff and strategic patience that characterizes relations at present. The underlying message is clear: while direct engagement is limited, both sides remain cautious about tipping into a broader confrontation, choosing instead to manage competition and rivalry through controlled channels and calculated moves.
The broader narrative suggests that the current phase is less about negotiation breakthroughs and more about stabilizing a precarious balance. Analysts point to the importance of predictable signaling, crisis management protocols, and the ability to communicate in moments of tension to prevent missteps that could escalate into something more dangerous. The situation in Europe, already volatile, continues to shape U.S. and Russian policy decisions, influencing how allies and partners respond to rapid developments on the ground. The overall tone in Moscow and Washington remains pragmatic, with a clear understanding that disengagement or sudden shifts could have wide-reaching consequences for regional security and global stability.