Polls ahead of the 28M election show a tight race, with regional contests likely decided by a small margin and the fate of both blocs hanging on a few votes. Across municipalities, the situation varies: PSPV-PSOE and PP hold steady governments in some towns, while others may see leadership shifts. Yet the outcomes in these local races have real implications for the trajectories of Ximo Puig and Carlos Mazón, reflecting the broader clash between the two major parties and their strategies.
In the most populous municipalities, the stakes are especially pronounced for both the socialists and the popular party. In places governed by PSPV-PSOE such as Elche, Orihuela, San Vicente del Raspeig, Calp, La Vila Joiosa, and Petrer, the PP is pushing for a change in leadership. Conversely, the Socialists expect to bolster their support in major cities run by the same bloc, including Alicante, Torrevieja, and Benidorm, where they anticipate gains driven by voter sentiment and organizational effort.
A key battleground in the 28M is Elche, a city the Mazón-led PPCV has highlighted as crucial for its ambitions toward the Palau de la Generalitat. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the national PP leader, recently visited Elche to rally support for Pablo Ruz. Elche remains under socialist control, with Carlos González guiding the city alongside Compromís, and the mayor seeking a third term. Ruz faces the challenge of overturning recent gains made by PSPV, which added to its tally in 2019. The restructuring of right-leaning forces, the absence of local Cs candidates, and a split on the left could yield consequences for the balance of power.
Puig’s presence in Vega Baja has grown since 2019, driven by the region’s high-profile issues. Orihuela stands out as a focal point under socialist leadership led by Carolina Gracia after a 2019 no-confidence vote, which precipitated Emilio Bascuñana’s departure as mayor. The PP fields José Vegara, whose legal case has drawn attention due to a potential seven-year sentence on charges related to Treasury offenses. Despite these legal matters, Vegara maintains the confidence of Mazón. The combination of the PSPV’s no-confidence move and Vegara’s legal issues sharpens the race in Vega Baja, with both parties positioned as favorites to win, though the future alignment of the PP partners remains uncertain.
In l’Alacantí, San Vicente del Raspeig is a major contest between socialista Jesús Villar and PP’s Pachi Pascual, a former Ciudadanos member who joined the PP. The dynamic echoes in Elda as well, where similar tensions play out. In San Vicente, securing Cs votes could be decisive; PSPV holds ten seats against Liberals five, while the PP sits with four. The outcome could leave the region’s political arrangements unsettled and open to last-minute shifts.
Sant Joan d’Alacant also promises to be pivotal within l’Alacantí. Santiago Román, the current mayor and a Cs alumnus, is seeking to shape the coalition narrative as liberals and populars signal a unified list for the 28M. The Socialists, however, point to Esther Donate as the likely winner based on internal surveys and historical patterns within the party.
La Vila Joiosa stands out as another critical hub. In 2019, PSPV captured eight council seats while PP and Liberals trailed, and now both majority blocs appear confident in their prospects. Socialists argue that mayor Andreu Verdú remains a strong personal brand, even as Podemos or other allied factions cast shadows over the campaign. The Populars, led by Marcos Zaragoza, are counting on continuity to cement their position.
Petrer continues to be a hopeful district for both camps. PSPV emphasizes the 2019 absolute majority in the Medio Vinalopó region, leveraging allies like Elda mayor Rubén Alfaro. The PP counters with Paco Ponce, a widely respected doctor, aiming to narrow the gap after PSPV’s decline from thirteen to five councilors in 2019. The race remains close, with both sides presenting robust ticket lists and local alliances.
Calp has undergone recent upheaval, injecting new variables into polling. Mayor Ana Sala left the PP and now leads Somos Calpe, a move that Mazón reportedly did not back for reelection. The local party’s leadership shifted under former PP figure César Sánchez, a change seen by Socialists as a sign of weakness and a potential opening to recapture ground. Guillermo Sendra has been presented as a candidate by Socialist ranks as a counterweight to these shifts.
Beyond these hotspots, the regional contest will also influence the results in larger population centers such as Torrevieja and Benidorm. The pattern there mirrors the national narrative: the Populars hold sway with broad majorities, while the Socialists push for gains to narrow the gap. The PP emphasizes the strength of its current majority and argues that PSPV’s options have diminished in the face of broader political currents at the national level, framed as a response to shifts in leadership and regional finance.
Socialists project optimism in Torrevieja, even as they face late-stage challenges in finalizing their candidate slate and list. Independents, like Bárbara Soler, emerge as contenders to challenge Mazón’s trusted allies. In Benidorm, Toni Pérez seeks reelection with hopes to expand the council, while PSPV supports Cristina Escoda, who has backing from Ximo Puig and aims to break local records as a new councilor list forms.
Beyond these focal municipalities, observers expect attention on Villena, Crevillent, and Altea, where the outcomes could shift regional balance and influence national dialogue. Every vote in these contests is scrutinized, given the intensity and expectations riding into the 28M elections and the broader political landscape in the region. [Source: Regional political analysis for the 28M Valencian elections, attribution provided].