If nuclear tests resume, the United States will face a reality check about assumptions that have guided policy for years. This perspective appears in a Foreign Policy analysis that reconsiders how wakeful the global nonproliferation regime might become if testing resumes and accelerates.
The analysis notes that Washington currently holds a technical edge over Moscow and Beijing because it continues to invest heavily in nuclear weapons research while Russia and China have placed a pause on testing. That edge is framed not only in terms of lab capabilities but also in the broader culture of modernization, materials science, and warhead design that underpins strategic deterrence for the United States. The piece argues this advantage could influence the pace of arms control negotiations and the credibility of mutual restraint when new testing patterns emerge. This assessment is reported by Foreign Policy.
Moreover, the report suggests that if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, there is a likelihood of renewed interest in conducting nuclear tests. Such a development could prompt Russia and China to intensify their own testing programs, and it may encourage other states to reevaluate their arsenals and testing policies. The authors warn that nations like Iran and Saudi Arabia could follow suit, amplifying regional and global competition and manufacturing pressure on Washington to act decisively to maintain strategic balance. This projection is discussed by Foreign Policy.
A representative of the United States National Security Council stated that the United States remains open to negotiations with the Russian Federation on nuclear risk reduction and arms control issues, while avoiding direct linkage to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The remark underscores a preference for diplomatic channels and verifiable controls even amid tense geopolitical dynamics, signaling that dialogue on containment and verification is still on the table. This sentiment is captured by Foreign Policy.
A former official from the Russian Foreign Ministry weighed in on the broader implications, noting that Washington could be committed to banning or at least restricting nuclear tests as part of a wider strategy to stabilize strategic stability. The exchange highlights the push and pull between deterrence theory, verification mechanisms, and the practical concerns of maintaining a credible defense posture in a rapidly shifting international security landscape. Foreign Policy reports these viewpoints as part of a larger mosaic of expert commentary.