Putin and Xi Jinping discuss potential actions around Ukraine ahead of Moscow’s intervention
Around 20 days before the start of a special operation in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping about possible measures in response to any attack on Russian territory or actions that could trigger a humanitarian crisis. The remarks were reported by anonymous sources connected to Financial Times in Beijing.
One source indicated that China viewed Moscow’s moves as signaling a limited military intervention rather than a large-scale invasion. Meanwhile, five senior Chinese officials in the past nine months told the publication that Moscow had not announced an intent to launch a full-scale assault on Beijing. The newspaper notes this stance existed prior to Putin’s order for the operation.
The Financial Times reports that Beijing’s reading of the situation contrasts with the public joint statement issued by China and Russia on February 4, 2022, following Xi and Putin’s meeting in Beijing. That statement promised deep Sino-Russian cooperation with no borders or forbidden zones, yet the transcript of that meeting was not released publicly.
Diplomatically, the FT suggests China aims to improve ties with certain Western nations after feeling isolated at times. The emphasis appears to be on Europe, where Beijing’s support for Moscow has weighed on regional relations amid the Ukraine conflict.
Yu Jie, a researcher at the British think tank Chatham House, expressed hope that Beijing would not challenge every Western country or appear isolated in multilateral forums. While Xi and Putin pledged closer bilateral ties in December, several Chinese officials met with the Financial Times privately to clarify Beijing’s stance on Ukraine. One insider noted that the decision to invade was made by a small group and cautioned against China simply following Moscow’s lead.
The article describes a diplomatic reset in which Beijing may overstate the benefits of its close relationship with Moscow. Despite public declarations of friendship, private conversations reveal a degree of distrust toward Putin among some Chinese officials.
According to Chinese insiders, the demotion of Le Yucheng, who had been China’s deputy foreign minister and Moscow’s primary Russia expert, is seen as evidence of shifting views within Chinese official circles. Reports say he was reassigned and faced scrutiny over intelligence assessments about Russia’s plans, with some sources hinting at his potential future role as foreign minister.
Diplomats seeking to restore China’s standing in Europe privately argued that Beijing was slow to grasp Moscow’s intentions. Officials described a strategy that included leveraging China’s relationship with Russia to deter Putin from employing nuclear weapons while presenting China as a potential peacekeeper capable of helping shape post-war Ukraine reconstruction.
In late December, Xi Jinping attempted to project himself as a champion of peace in conversations with Putin. He spoke of a road to peace talks that would be difficult but possible and emphasized China’s aim to remain objective, unite the international community, and play a constructive role in a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis.