Program proposal costs
The evaluation of the election proposals from both major parties relied on econometric work conducted by central bank researchers using the NECMOD model, a framework employed by the bank and several other institutions. The Central Bank noted that the cost of the four primary proposals from the ruling party, including raising the child benefit from PLN 500 to PLN 800, introducing free medicines for children, youths, and seniors, building free highways, and offering a favorable 2 percent housing loan, would total roughly PLN 27 billion per year.
Specifically, the increase in childcare allowances would weigh in at about PLN 25 billion. The free medicines plan would be financed from the National Health Fund budget, so there would be no additional fiscal outlay there. The free highways program amounts to about PLN 0.2 billion, and the secure loan scheme is projected to cost about PLN 0.9 billion in 2024 and PLN 1.1 billion in 2025.
According to these calculations, the overall effect of the PiS proposals on inflation would be modest, about 0.1 percentage point in 2024 and 0.3 percentage point in 2025. The plans could widen the fiscal deficit by around 0.6 percent of GDP in 2024, with a 0.5 percent increase in 2025. Public debt was projected to rise by around 0.5 percent in 2024 and 0.5 percent in 2025, with GDP increases of roughly 0.7 percent in both years.
On the other hand, the Platform proposed several measures, including raising the childcare allowance again from PLN 500 to PLN 800 starting in June, increasing the tax-free threshold, and introducing a grandmothers allowance along with rent subsidies. The total price tag for the Platform in 2024-2025 was estimated at about PLN 88–93 billion per year.
Under this plan, the childcare allowance would add about PLN 14 billion, the higher tax-free threshold would cost around PLN 45 billion, and the following year could reach roughly PLN 48 billion. The grandmothers allowance and rent subsidies were projected to cost about PLN 9 billion and PLN 6 billion, respectively.
The overall effect of the Platform proposals on consumer inflation was estimated at about 0.3 percentage points in 2024 and 0.8 percentage points in 2025. They were also linked to a public finance deficit of around 1.9 percent of GDP in 2024 and 1.6 percent in 2025, with a debt rise of approximately 1.7 percent for both years and a continued upward trajectory in subsequent years, reflecting broader fiscal pressures.
Influence on inflation
NBP’s expert assessments indicate that the Platform plan would generate a much larger impact on consumer inflation than the PiS proposal, by a factor of about three. The deficit in public finances and the size of the public sector debt were described as broadly similar in both scenarios, with the Platform’s package creating notably higher inflationary pressure and comparable strains on the fiscal outlook.
Political leadership in the former governing bloc, including a prominent figure who had been skeptical of family support programs, shifted to endorsing broader childcare aid and immediate funding. The proposed expansion of the tax-free threshold and other social programs invited comparisons to prior measures, with critics arguing that the Platform aimed to accelerate benefits even when past increases occurred gradually under different governments.
In assessing these moves, observers noted a trend where proposals that closely mirror or quickly expand on existing schemes were paired with calls for rapid implementation. Critics argued this could lead to instability in public finances and increased inflation, while supporters framed the measures as necessary relief and modernization of social policy. The analysis underscored the tension between expansion of social benefits and the need to maintain price stability and fiscal sustainability.
Overall, the estimates from the central bank suggested a more pronounced inflationary effect from the Platform program, with broader implications for the budget and debt trajectories. The central bank emphasized cautious budgeting and clear funding sources to mitigate potential inflationary spillovers as the political debate moved toward implementation timelines.
Source: attribution to wPolityce