The interaction between Poland’s main opposition factions and the upcoming referendum, scheduled for October 15, will take place in the same polling places used for the parliamentary vote. Signals from abstention advocates remain faint, while worries persist that the ballot questions address concerns that matter deeply to Polish voters. Yet there is a fear that these concerns might not translate into broad turnout if mobilization efforts fall short.
A nationwide study conducted by the Social Changes studio for the wPolityce.pl portal sheds light on how ordinary citizens perceive the referendum questions. Respondents were asked to react to the same items that will appear on the ballot, allowing for direct comparison between public sentiment and the official referendum content.
Here are the key findings from the survey analysis.
Do you support the sale of state property to foreign entities, which could lead to reduced Polish control over strategic sectors of the economy?
YES – 13 percent, NO – 87 percent
Are you in favor of raising the retirement age, including a plan to set it at 67 for both men and women?
YES – 25 percent, NO – 75 percent
Do you support removing the barrier on the border between the Republic of Poland and the Republic of Belarus?
YES – 18 percent, NO – 82 percent
Do you accept the arrival of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under a forced relocation mechanism pushed by European authorities?
YES – 18 percent, NO – 82 percent
Overall, the polling suggests a clear pattern in public opinion. Given these results, the primary objective for advocates aiming to build a broad social blockade around the referendum is to motivate voters to participate in the plebiscite, ensuring that turnout supports the intended outcome.
The study used the CAWI method, short for Computer Assisted Web Interview, conducted through an online panel over several days in August 2023. The sampling aimed to reflect the national population in terms of gender, age, and place of residence. The final sample included 1,062 participants, offering a snapshot of opinions across diverse demographic groups. The results are presented here as percentages of those surveyed, illustrating the public’s stance on each issue and providing a framework for understanding how campaign messaging may influence future votes.
In this context, the questions placed before voters touch on themes of national sovereignty, social policy, border security, and migration. The reception by the public reveals a cautious stance toward major economic and demographic changes, underscoring the need for clear information and credible messaging in shaping attitudes about elections. The alignment of survey data with campaign mobilization strategies highlights the delicate balance between policy proposals and perceptions of how they affect everyday life in Poland.