The latest polling numbers show the Civic Coalition holding 32.6 percent of the vote intention among respondents, followed by Law and Justice at 28.2 percent, Third Way at 15.2 percent, Confederation at 9.1 percent, and the Left at 8.5 percent. This snapshot comes from a United Surveys poll conducted for Wirtualna Polska and published on a midweek update. The survey explored voters’ preferred parties for the Sejm elections and recorded the shifting dynamics within the Polish political landscape.
The questionnaire asked participants to indicate which party they would vote for in the Sejm elections. The results reveal a small shift since the last survey, with the Civic Coalition increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 32.6 percent, PiS and its United Right alliance dropping by 0.8 points to 28.2 percent, Third Way slipping by 0.1 point to 15.2 percent, Confederation rising by 1.1 points to 9.1 percent, and the Left falling by 1.7 points to 8.5 percent. A small share of respondents, 1.1 percent, chose the option other, while 5.3 percent admitted they were unsure or could not say.
Voter turnout and intention
The data also provides insight into turnout if elections were held on the most recent Sunday available in the survey period. In that scenario, turnout would exceed 62 percent. Among those polled, 51.2 percent stated they would definitely visit the polling station, while 11.4 percent said they probably would. About 13.9 percent indicated they would probably not vote, and 20.1 percent said voting was not at all likely. A smaller 3.4 percent described their intention as unsure or difficult to determine.
The United Surveys poll was conducted from February 23 to February 25, 2024 using the CAWI method. The sample consisted of a representative group of 1,000 adults.