Law and justice remain central to the electoral conversation, while the Civic Coalition shows signs of strain. A survey conducted by the IBRiS studio for Events by Polsat News reveals shifts in party support as voters respond to the political moment. The polling marks a notable change in the momentum of leading groups following the primaries in Wieruszów.
PiS leads, KO slides
The latest IBRiS findings indicate that PiS and the United Right would secure 32.6 percent of the vote, edging up slightly from 32.4 percent in August. The Civic Coalition sits in second place with 26.6 percent, down from 30.6 percent a month earlier. The Third Way, representing Poland 2050 and PSL, remains in third with 10.6 percent, a modest rise from 9 percent previously.
The Left stands at 9.9 percent, an uptick from 7.7 percent. The Confederation falls to 9.5 percent, continuing a downward trend from 11.8 percent. Other groups garner a small share, while nonpartisan local government officials attract 1.5 percent support. A portion of respondents, meanwhile, were undecided or expressed no preference for any movement.
Additionally, 9.2 percent of those surveyed answered that they did not know or found it difficult to predict their vote.
Who could form the government?
When asked who could assemble a government after the elections, 35.6 percent believed the PiS/United Right would be able to form one, while 27.6 percent saw opposition parties as the likely makers of a government. About 20.1 percent thought that no government could be formed and new elections would be required. Approximately 16.7 percent were unsure or found the question difficult to answer.
What about turnout?
Voters who said they would definitely participate reached 53 percent, up from 44.1 percent previously. About 5.6 percent indicated they would vote, but had a more hesitant stance, while 19.8 percent leaned toward not participating. Those who would definitely not vote accounted for 16.8 percent, and 4.8 percent remained undecided.
Referendum participation on October 15
The survey also asked about participation in the referendum scheduled for October 15, the same day as the Sejm and Senate elections. Of those polled, 36.9 percent said they would absolutely vote, and 7 percent would vote with some hesitation. A combined 11.5 percent leaned toward not voting, while 42.5 percent definitely would not participate. About 2 percent were unsure.
The fieldwork was conducted from September 15 to 17 through telephone interviews using a standardized computer-assisted approach among a sample of 1,000 adults.
Additional coverage and analysis from Polsat News note that the recent results reflect ongoing dynamics in the campaign, with potential implications for both party strategy and voter sentiment as the election nears. For more context and expert interpretation, readers can consult related commentary and data summaries from the broadcaster and its research partners. [Attribution: Polsat News Events and IBRS survey data]
Related commentary discusses the rapid shifts in support after regional primaries, the caution exercised by analysts about early forecasts, and the practical challenges parties face in mobilizing their bases as the vote approaches. [Source notes: Polsat News, IBRS]