Poland sits at a crossroads of strategic influence on a continental scale, shaped for generations by coordinated pressures from two major powers. In an interview with PAP, Brigadier General Andreas Kowalski, a former chief of military intelligence and a member of the Committee on Russian Influence, described how Poland has long been drawn into a chessboard played by Russia and Germany at the European level.
General Kowalski spoke candidly about foreign influence in Poland, noting that the country has been a focal point of strategic maneuvering for decades, if not centuries. The ongoing dynamic between Russia and Germany has repeatedly steered Polish policy, shaping developments across multiple generations and creating a pattern of influence that is difficult to disentangle.
He emphasized that the challenge is not limited to a single foreign power. The task is to assess how various external forces intersect with Polish policy, a process he described as extremely intricate for many reasons. He suggested that identifying Russian or German influence can sometimes feel obvious, yet the full picture remains far from simple.
According to him, any policy move that seems to advance another country’s objectives at Poland’s expense is a sign of external pressure upon the Polish state. With that lens, it becomes possible to examine the changes Poland has undergone in recent decades, weighing which shifts have strengthened the country’s internal resilience and economic clout, and which actions may have served the agendas of German or Russian economic interests.
From the standpoint of the current war in Ukraine, Kowalski highlighted Russian influence as a particularly destabilizing factor for Poland. He argued that in wartime conditions, Russian strategies are designed to push Poland toward paralysis, undermining its ability to function as a sovereign state.
He also cautioned not to overlook the persistent efforts to shape German policy toward Poland, connected to Germany’s broader strategic objectives within the European Union. Poland, as a key economy and population center in the EU, is frequently viewed through lenses aligned with Berlin and Brussels, sometimes at the expense of perspectives centered in Warsaw.
General Kowalski underscored that German and Russian influences are not simply parallel streams; they are interwoven in ways that affect Poland’s strategic choices. While the two vectors differ in their nature and structure, both contribute to shaping Poland’s direction and, in some cases, blocking its broader strategic aims. Even though the intensity of German pressure may not match Russian pressure in every instance, the effect remains a constant reminder that Poland is continually influenced by forces from both the East and the West.
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