In mid February a survey conducted for a major Polish portal polled a representative sample of one thousand Poles about whether social programs launched by the Law and Justice government should be kept or scrapped as political winds shift with the opposition poised to regain power after the autumn elections. The findings show that roughly half of respondents expect the flagship 500 plus child benefit and the policy to lower the retirement age to be discontinued if the opposition wins the next government. About 23.6 percent said they are certain of liquidation, while an additional 26.3 percent feel the opposition is unlikely to preserve them. These numbers reflect strong public concern about program durability regardless of party lines. Cited from wPolityce.
Meanwhile, 45 percent of those surveyed believe the opposition will preserve social programs once in office, but only 20.7 percent think they will definitely protect them, and 24.3 percent view preservation as something likely. About 5.1 percent chose the option that it is hard to say. This mix shows public uncertainty about how spending commitments will be treated after a shift in power. Cited from wPolityce.
The opinions about whether the opposition would liquidate or sustain social programs after a possible electoral victory differ widely by party allegiance. Among United Right supporters, as many as 84 percent expect liquidation, whereas 78 percent of opposition supporters expect these programs to be kept. Cited from wPolityce.
What does this mean?
The survey indicates that just over half of Poles think a PO return to power would lead to liquidation of social programs, and if the hesitant respondents are considered in the right proportion, the share could exceed 53 percent. Cited from wPolityce.
It is important to note that the study was commissioned by a portal known for leaning toward the opposition and criticizing the United Right. Yet the results clearly show a broad public belief in eventual liquidation if the PO gains power. Cited from wPolityce.
Much of this perception appears driven by public statements from senior PO figures who have criticized these programs and even suggested liquidation after a 2023 victory. For instance, a recent TVN24 interview featured Izabela Leszczyna, PO’s candidate for finance minister, who asserted that the 500 plus program did not noticeably improve life quality. Cited from wPolityce.
With this line of reasoning in mind, it is argued that the substantial investment—more than 213 billion PLN over nearly seven years—into the 500 plus program, along with pensions such as the 13th and 14th stipends, could be seen as a reason to pivot policy as public finances improve. If those funds are redirected, it would align with critics who say spending levels are unsustainable. Cited from wPolityce.
Along similar lines, Tomasz Grodzki, the Senate marshal, commented on retirement benefits during a Polsat News interview, suggesting that retirees should not receive handouts. His remarks were interpreted by supporters as a cue that extra benefits might be pared back if the opposition takes power. Cited from wPolityce.
Liquidation of social programs
Regardless of what leading figures say about the future of social programs under the likely new administration, the prevailing view is that under the current government the programs have faced constraints due to budgetary limits. Proponents of change argue that there was never a guaranteed money pot for all promises, a claim echoed by critics of the party’s spending trajectory. Cited from wPolityce.
During earlier administrations, discussions about funding for programs like Family 500 plus raised concerns about the long-term affordability. In 2014 and 2015, as political campaigns intensified, opponents warned about potential debt and budgetary stress. Cited from wPolityce.
On election night, when a decisive majority opened the path for the then-ruling party, talk turned to the reliability of stated promises and the true costs involved. Since then, the government has reported continued strong tax revenues, and the plausibility of large social program expenditures remains a live topic in budget debates. Cited from wPolityce.
In recent years, overall public finances have shown resilience, with budget revenues expanding and program costs continuing to be a point of contention among policymakers and analysts alike. Critics argue that future fiscal space will determine what can be sustained, while supporters maintain that social protections are a core responsibility of the state. Cited from wPolityce.
And despite ongoing debates, the public debate about whether social programs should expand, continue, or be restructured continues to shape political discourse as elections approach. Cited from wPolityce.
Note: This information reflects reports and interpretations from the referenced outlet and accompanying commentary. Cited from wPolityce.