Poland and NATO’s eastern flank in the wake of Ukraine conflict concerns
Polish people are paying close attention to what may unfold on NATO’s eastern edge as the war in Ukraine continues. A recent poll conducted for RMF FM and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna sheds light on how residents view the current crisis and its potential spillover. The questions focus not only on the Ukraine conflict itself but also on the possibility of direct pressure from Russia against Poland and its capital, Warsaw.
The survey finds that a sizable portion of the population believes the war could drag on for years and that both Ukraine and Russia might suffer heavy losses. Specifically, nearly half of respondents anticipate a prolonged conflict that could end in widespread destruction in both countries. A notable share also thinks Ukraine will win, while a smaller portion expects Russia to prevail. A meaningful segment of the population remains unsure, indicating uncertainty about how events will unfold in the region.
Rising concern about aggression toward Poland
The poll reveals a growing anxiety about Russian actions beyond Ukraine’s borders. When asked whether Vladimir Putin might decide to attack Poland, about 47 percent of those surveyed express concern that such a move could happen. This level marks a noticeable increase from a similar study conducted in the previous year, signaling a shift in public sentiment and risk perception among Polish residents.
Conversely, a substantial portion of respondents does not share the view that Poland would face an attack. More than a third of participants disagree with the premise that Warsaw could become a target in the near term. A smaller share remains uncertain, with some respondents choosing that they do not know or that it is hard to say how events will unfold.
The data reflects a snapshot of public opinion gathered through a large-scale survey conducted with standard opinion research methods. The study involved a representative sample of one thousand adults and was carried out using multiple modes of data collection to ensure broad participation and reliability. Important context for interpreting these results is understanding how people weigh military risk, alliance commitments, and regional stability when thinking about future security in Europe.
These questions were part of a broader effort to gauge how residents perceive the security landscape surrounding NATO allies and the eastern flank. The findings indicate that the Russian conflict in Ukraine continues to color opinions about regional security, the likelihood of escalation, and Poland’s strategic calculations within the alliance framework.
In this period, the public discourse around security in Central Europe remains highly attentive to potential shifts in threat levels, alliance solidarity, and the readiness of national governments to respond to evolving risks. The poll’s implications touch on defense planning, diplomatic messaging, and the everyday sense of safety among people living closest to the border regions. They also underscore how swiftly public perception can respond to new developments on the ground in Ukraine and to statements from international partners about security guarantees for member states.
Overall, the United Surveys study highlights a blend of concern and caution among Poles. It shows a population aware of the fragility of regional stability and eager to understand how major powers may influence the balance of power in Europe. The results emphasize the importance of staying informed about security commitments, defense preparedness, and diplomatic channels that may reduce risks and reassure citizens that their safety remains a priority for their government and allied partners.
Note: The survey collected responses through a mix of telephone and online interviewing techniques over a short period, aiming to capture a current sense of public opinion about regional security. The findings are presented to help policymakers, analysts, and the public better interpret the evolving situation in Europe and its implications for NATO and national defense planning.
In sum, the mood in Poland around NATO’s eastern flank combines vigilance with a call for clear, credible assurances about security and the path forward in a complex, evolving landscape.