PiS’s chances of winning the election
The discussion about the next parliamentary elections centered on the maneuvers within Polish politics, with Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz offering his assessment on RMF FM. He suggested that the Civic Coalition holds significant advantages that could tilt the race in its favor. Marcinkiewicz pointed to the structure of state influence, noting that Law and Justice benefits from state-owned enterprises, extensive institutional reach, and what he described as the public media landscape and its accompanying messaging. He emphasized that this combination creates a powerful information environment behind the party’s campaign, which others would need to counter in order to close the gap.
According to his view, Law and Justice shifted the ground rules by presenting Donald Tusk as the main opponent. He cautioned that if Jarosław Kaczyński’s faction intends to win, it must intensify its efforts and engage more actively in the political arena. Marcinkiewicz also criticized the United Right, arguing that while the label suggests unity, internal discord has grown to the point of obstructing the campaign. He described factions as fearful of defeat and increasingly prone to public sniping, a dynamic that undermines campaign momentum.
On strategy, Marcinkiewicz opined that Donald Tusk has made notable inroads through a disciplined, large-scale march-style approach, though he questioned the sustainability and visibility of that momentum. He asserted that the Civic Coalition possesses substantial data and resources and could be positioned for a near-40 percent share, yet acknowledged that this level would not automatically translate into governing power. The overall takeaway was a cautious prognosis: the coalition appears to be trending toward a near-majority, but not a decisive victory without further mobilization.
Kaczynski’s return to government
The RMF FM discussion also touched on Jarosław Kaczyński’s potential return to government. It was noted that President Andrzej Duda had reshaped the cabinet and elevated Kaczyński to the role of Vice-President of the Council of Ministers. The reshuffle included changes to several key posts, including personnel moves that redefined responsibilities across national defense, culture and national heritage, and state assets, with respective appointees stepping into these roles.
Marcinkiewicz suggested that Kaczyński has been subject to pressure from what he described as the so-called PC order. He claimed that senior associates in that network have encouraged Kaczyński to travel the country in order to outline the PiS program ahead of the elections, effectively positioning him as a prominent, visible figure who could influence the electoral landscape. The implication was that this strategy aimed to reduce Morawiecki’s public presence as the party’s leading face.
In terms of competition for the prime minister’s post, Marcinkiewicz highlighted Beata Szydło, who remains a leading voice within her faction, alongside Joachim Brudziński and Mariusz Błaszczak. He argued that these figures stand out against the backdrop of those associated with the so-called PC order, signaling a potential reshuffling of power and influence within the party as elections approach.
What does the former prime minister do?
Marcinkiewicz indicated that he himself is drawn back to politics, but he chooses to operate as an independent commentator for the time being. He stressed that he has no direct contact with Donald Tusk or Jarosław Kaczyński and did not express concern about rumors circulating about his future. He framed his current role as a way to provide analysis from an outside perspective while remaining focused on informed, secular assessment of the political scene.
The discussion reel also included brief mentions of related media coverage about the former prime minister, with notes about how various outlets have portrayed his activities and opinions. The overarching thread was a portrayal of a political landscape where alliances shift, leadership appearances are carefully choreographed, and public perception plays a critical role in shaping campaign dynamics. The dialogue underscored the candidates’ ongoing maneuvering as the electoral timetable advances.
In sum, the discourse presents a portrait of a polarized field where incipient coalitions, internal party tensions, and strategic public appearances coalesce around the central question of who can mobilize enough support to form a government. The analysis also hints at the power of messaging and institutional leverage in shaping voters’ perceptions ahead of the polls. Attribution: RMF FM coverage, with context drawn from national political commentary and cross-referenced reporting.