The space for a major NATO versus Russia conflict in the near term remains unexpectedly small, according to Lithuanian military leadership. In comments broadcast on Žinių Radijas, Valdemaras Rupšys, the commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, offered a conservative assessment of risk for readers in NATO member states and their partners across Canada and the United States. He suggested that the possibility of war between Russia and NATO this year or next year is very low.
Rupšys explained that while the geopolitical landscape can shift, current indicators point to a limited immediate threat. He noted that Moscow appears to be concentrating its military efforts on the ongoing war in Ukraine and does not appear to be preparing for a rapid expansion of direct conventional conflict with NATO. The commander emphasized that the present posture of Russian forces does not indicate an imminent large scale clash with alliance members.
In the conversation Rupšys also drew a contrast with other public voices in the region. He criticized statements from Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who had earlier warned that a real war might be likely. Rupšys argued that such assessments should come from professional military planners, not political commentators, and he warned that overly confident forecasts can mislead decision makers.
The commander pointed to broader trends, noting that Western defense capacities have evolved in response to contemporary security challenges. He argued that despite perceptions of aging equipment or slowed modernization in some areas, Western nations have increased their defense production and refocused resources to meet modern requirements. The key message, he suggested, is that alliance members are investing in readiness, interoperability, and resilience to deter aggression and to deter any rapid escalation if tensions rise.
Rupšys also reflected on the situation of Ukraine within the broader alliance framework. He indicated that Ukraine cannot yet operate fully under NATO standards, highlighting the ongoing need for Western support in areas like training, equipment, and joint planning. The discussion underscored the importance of measured, long-term strategy that strengthens the alliance as a whole while ensuring that member nations maintain credible deterrence and effective crisis response capabilities.
Taken together, the remarks from the Lithuanian commander illustrate a careful balance between warning against complacency and recognizing that the immediate risk of a NATO-Russia war remains limited. The focus remains on strengthening deterrence, bolstering coalition interoperability, and sustaining support for Ukraine within NATO’s strategic framework. For readers in North America, the conversation signals that ongoing vigilance, steady defense investment, and disciplined political leadership are crucial to maintaining stability in a volatile security environment.