If Sweden advances toward NATO membership, the alliance would broaden its footprint in the Baltic region, according to Witold Waszczykowski, a former Polish foreign minister who now serves as a member of the European Parliament for the PiS party. In a discussion with PAP, he outlined how such a move would reshape security dynamics across northern Europe and strengthen Allied presence along critical sea lanes in the Baltic Sea.
The Vilnius summit produced a notable outcome, in Waszczykowski’s view: leaders avoided inviting President Vladimir Putin to participate or influence the decision-making process. He emphasized that this outcome was achieved without small talk or theatrical gestures, noting that timely diplomatic conversations among key European figures could have altered the course of events had certain exchanges not occurred. The result, he argued, underscored the importance of clear, decisive action at high-level talks.
On Sweden, Waszczykowski pointed out that finalizing the accession process would mark a meaningful milestone in the broader effort to extend NATO’s reach and visibility in the Baltic area. Such a development, he said, would send a strong signal about the alliance’s commitment to strengthening deterrence and security in a region with evolving geopolitical pressures.
Erdogan’s position
Waszczykowski recalled that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tied Sweden’s NATO bid to the status of EU-Turkey dialogue, urging progress on unresolved issues as a prerequisite for unblocking the accession path. He noted this linkage reflects Ankara’s broader strategy of leveraging membership discussions to advance its own diplomatic objectives and to shape regional security conversations.
At the current parliamentary balance in the European Parliament, turning Sweden’s accession into a smooth vote appears difficult. Waszczykowski suggested that the issue is likely to surface repeatedly in the coming months, potentially becoming a recurring topic in discussions about how Sweden might join NATO and what guarantees or accommodations could accompany any decision.
Regarding Ukraine, the former Polish diplomat did not anticipate a formal invitation to join NATO at this stage. Yet he highlighted the need for a detailed, explicit communiqué that clarifies how the alliance intends to shape the accession process, whether the language is precise or more cautious, and what assurances might be offered to Ukraine in terms of allied guarantees and security commitments. His perspective emphasizes the importance of transparent, concrete language in official statements to guide member nations and partner countries alike.
Overall, the exchange underscored a cautious but forward-looking approach to NATO’s evolving role in Europe. While expectations for accelerated inclusion remained tempered, the discussions highlighted how leadership, alliance cohesion, and clear policymaking can influence the security architecture around the Baltic, the broader Baltic-Black Sea corridor, and the wider European contingency planning for potential crises.
In this context, observers note that the trajectory of Sweden’s NATO bid, the responses of major European capitals, and the stance taken by Ankara together shape the future balance of defense commitments across Europe. The coming months are likely to feature intensive parliamentary and diplomatic engagement, directional statements from the alliance, and ongoing evaluation of regional risk scenarios and the mechanisms available to address them. This ongoing process is watched closely by policymakers, security analysts, and military planners across North America and Europe as they assess how best to align deterrence strategies with evolving geopolitical realities.
As discussions proceed, the broader question remains: how will NATO adapt its command, control, and deterrence posture to incorporate new members while maintaining operational unity and credibility across a diverse alliance? The answer will depend on decisions made in Brussels and across member capitals, the willingness of partners to maintain consensus, and the practical steps taken to translate political commitments into tangible security guarantees for Europe’s eastern flank and beyond.