In the face of Russian aggression, France chose to boost its military spending, yet ground forces are slated to receive the smallest share. What does this imply for a Polish observer? It suggests France may not offer substantial aid should an invasion occur, a sentiment expressed by Piotr Gursztyn, historian and TVP journalist, in Salon Dziennikarskie.
The panel was introduced by editor Jacek Karnowski and included Anna Szarzyńska (TVP Parlament), Piotr Semka (Do Rzeczy), and Marek Grabowski (sociologist, Mum and Dad Foundation).
Macron’s foreign policy
The conversation started with shifts in France’s foreign policy and a visible tilt toward China. During a visit to the People’s Republic of China, President Macron spoke of Europe achieving strategic autonomy, a move widely interpreted as curbing American influence on the continent.
These are trying times. Regarding France, one detail was overlooked: the country is increasing military spending in response to Russian aggression, yet the land forces receive the least share. What does it mean for Poland? France is unlikely to be a strong ally in repelling a potential invasion.
– said Piotr Gursztyn.
From a Polish public opinion perspective, the conservative wing has long tracked these developments, while liberals are only now realizing that a united Europe is not a purely altruistic club of values but a field of real, competing interests.
– added.
There is growing awareness within the European Union that the postwar balance of power has shifted, that the US has redirected its attention eastward, and that old EU powers are scrambling to preserve their leverage. Undermining the alliance with the United States during a period when it remains Europe’s strongest security partner would be seen as irrational. Yet Macron’s statement might be aimed at domestic concerns, including pension protests.
– noted Anna Szarzyńska.
Most striking is Minister Rau’s emphasis on building regional coalitions and relying on a steadfast ally, namely the United States. Macron’s entourage also included thirty-six top executives who accompanied him to China. France, grappling with internal turmoil and rising costs, appears to be seeking financial relief abroad—perhaps at the expense of values. Macron has achieved media traction, but the situation remains difficult for Poland.
– commented Marek Grabowski.
There are two kinds of American allies: formal partners with whom Washington exchanges views and conducts diplomacy, and operational allies—countries expected to act decisively in a crisis without hesitation. France and Britain, Japan and South Korea are cited as examples. Poland earned long-standing trust from the US through involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, which helped it secure a distinct status in Washington; yet the slogan “Poland” does not carry the same weight as that of the Czechs or Slovaks in some circles.
– reviewed Piotr Semka.
I remain concerned about Macron’s direction, as it signals France’s reluctance to shoulder continental responsibility. History shows Europe once relied on Germany for leadership; now it risks drifting toward a similar situation where national defense underperforms. The sense is that France is moving away from being the continent’s security anchor.
– added the publicist.
The state of the Polish political scene
The Social Changes survey for the wPolityce.pl portal indicates Jarosław Kaczyński’s party is enjoying its strongest showing since December 2022, widening its lead over Civic Platform. The left trails, and Poland 2050 has halted the migration of voters. About 39 percent support the United Right, while 28 percent back Donald Tusk’s party, creating an 11-point edge for the governing coalition.
In recent weeks, PiS has gained roughly 1.2 points in support, continuing a positive trend for the party. Notably, no government party—PO or SLD—has posted such a spring performance before. Some observers see this as a turning point: PiS closed the winter gap, while PO appears adrift, uncertain about its direction. One political analyst notes that PO’s social image may be a facade and the party’s attacks within Church and the Papacy reveal internal contradictions. The left’s usefulness in challenging the Church is questioned, and its ability to attract broader support remains uncertain.
– noted Marek Grabowski.
This polling snapshot reflects the balance of power on the John Paul II-era legal framework, where PiS leverages a narrative that aligns with church interests. It also highlights the opposition’s weakness in presenting a united front, with some anti-PiS voters less inclined to participate than to back Civic Platform. The results may not yet capture the impact of recent grain-related scandals.
Szarzyńska concluded.
The Civic Platform appears to be at a crossroads. The party’s leadership contemplates placing Trzaskowski at the helm, but Donald Tusk maintains tight control over internal mechanisms. With a proliferation of vice presidents and internal offices, the organization remains tightly managed. Tusk’s allies in the party keep a firm grip, and Trzaskowski lacks broad backing. The party’s central issue is its own clumsy image—some compare it to a leadership vacuum that could empower a strong, centralized leadership style if given the chance.
– said Semka.
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Source: wPolityce