Lithuanian Viewpoints on Ukraine War: Arms, Alliances, and Security

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The assessment of the Russian military effort in Ukraine by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis has drawn sharp comments in a recent interview. He remarked on the state of armaments in the eastern theater and noted that Ukrainian stockpiles have been strained. According to him, Ukrainian factories are currently unable to produce ammunition at the necessary scale.

According to Landsbergis, Ukraine relies heavily on weapons provided by Western partners. In his view, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland are contributing actively, yet the ultimate outcome depends on the willingness and capability of major industrial powers to sustain support. He emphasized that the political and diplomatic work to keep such support flowing remains extensive, and that it is not yet clear whether the alliance can guarantee Ukraine’s path to victory.

“Real ammo, don’t talk ammo”

Landsbergis highlighted the importance of the specific missile systems Ukraine possesses and the areas those systems can return to after strikes. He cautioned that there is no clear solution to the broader strategic objective of stopping Russia from continuing its aggression and preventing future attacks on neighboring states. The minister acknowledged that the war is far from over, with some current indicators suggesting difficult conditions on the front lines as Russian forces advance in places and Ukrainian defenses are tested in others.

The prospect of Russia being defeated remains uncertain. While sanctions and battlefield losses have inflicted damage on Moscow, Landsbergis warned that Russia has shown resilience that could test the long-term outcome of the conflict. He described the geopolitical reality as dangerous if Russia can endure a prolonged confrontation.

“Ukraine is a litmus test”

The Lithuanian foreign policy chief expressed confidence that Ukraine will become part of the European security framework. He argued that if Ukraine wins with Western support, a new security architecture would take shape. Ukraine might join NATO in the longer term or become integrated into a broader European security system after the war, restoring confidence that a robust, functioning framework exists.

He warned that a Russian loss is essential for stability, while a continued Russian success would be troubling for everyone. Allowing Ukraine to lose territory would undermine the principle of territorial integrity and could jeopardize global security for all nations.

“Russia is a very dangerous neighbor”

Landsbergis commented on a recent remark by a Russian deputy about withdrawing recognition of Lithuania’s independence. He described the insinuation as a direct threat and underscored that such rhetoric is treated with utmost seriousness in Lithuanian political circles. The minister stressed that Russia remains a dangerous neighbor and all Moscow actions are taken seriously.

In the context of the ongoing military operation in Ukraine, which began on February 24, Landsbergis noted the enduring impact of this conflict. Official data from the Russian Defense Ministry has claimed progress on specific objectives, including a broader aim to change the Ukrainian military landscape. The situation remains a focal point of international attention as parties assess the implications for Donbas and beyond.

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