The South Ossetian Foreign Ministry’s press service described the Georgian opposition’s calls to seize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and to open a so‑called second front against Russia, as actions fraught with grave risk. It emphasized that any attack on these breakaway regions would be treated as an assault on the Russian Federation, given the bilateral security commitments in the area. The statement followed remarks by Irakli Kobakhidze, the head of Georgia’s ruling party, who outlined what the opposition envisions as a bold campaign that could include entering Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and even advancing toward Sochi as part of a so‑called wave of success linked to the activities of the Wagner private military company.
The ministry noted that Georgia’s leadership is under intense pressure, both from domestic opposition and from international voices urging a tougher stance against Russia. It argued that the prospect of a second front would force Russia to divert substantial military resources to counter Georgia’s moves, with consequences for regional security and stability. The department reiterated that any attack on South Ossetia, Abkhazia, or Russian bases in those territories would be treated as an attack on Russia itself, underscoring the seriousness of the territorial and security implications.
In Tskhinvali officials pointed out that calls to seize Abkhazia and South Ossetia were voiced by Georgian actors even before the events surrounding Wagner became prominent. They framed the situation as a political failure in Georgia, suggesting that the current government has managed to maintain a cautious and balanced approach despite pressure from radical elements, both inside and outside the country. Officials stressed that they continue to monitor Georgia’s domestic political climate and assess risks in close collaboration with Russian and Abkhaz colleagues to prevent any escalation.
On July 3, Kobakhidze publicly accused elements within the Georgian opposition of publicly celebrating Wagner’s leader, praising him with slogans and poems, and hinting that if the Wagner model proves successful, these factions would push beyond Abkhazia and Tskhinvali and potentially threaten additional targets, including Sochi, with heavy armed support. The comments highlighted the fragile line between political rhetoric and the risk of drawing regional security dynamics into a broader conflict narrative.
Earlier, on June 23, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Wagner, claimed that Russian Defense Ministry forces had attacked Wagner rear camps and that his fighters were moving toward Russia in what he described as a march for justice. The Russian Defense Ministry denied the allegation, and Prigozhin faced a criminal case over organizing an armed rebellion. The sequence of claims and denials fed a volatile information environment that complicated assessments of the situation and the motives behind various actors’ actions.
By June 24, Wagner units reportedly closed some administrative offices in Rostov-on-Don, while President Vladimir Putin moved in a way that drew widespread commentary and concern about the trajectory of the conflict and the internal political repercussions. Belarusian officials later indicated that discussions between Alexander Lukashenko and Prigozhin had taken place, with Prigozhin signaling a reversal of his troops’ directions and a return to field camps. The news cycle around Wagner’s activities continued to influence perceptions of risk and stability across the region.
On June 27, the Federal Security Service announced the termination of the case against Prigozhin, a development that added another layer of ambiguity to the broader security situation and the splintering dynamics within Russian power structures. In Georgia, former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili reiterated a firm stance: as long as his party remains in control, a second front on Georgian soil would not be allowed, signaling the enduring political determination to avoid direct engagement that could escalate the conflict beyond what the government deems prudent.