The leader of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhaniya, has stated that his region supports expanding the Union State to include Russia, Belarus, and other interested partners.
“When considering the idea of a State of the Union involving Russia, Belarus, and others, we would back this concept. It aligns with our national interests,” Bzhaniya asserted. He noted that Sukhum recognizes the need for a lasting alliance with Russia and believes the arrangement could become clearer after Russia completes its current special operation in Ukraine. He suggested the leadership and people of Russia would emerge as a true ally, evident to all once that phase ends.
From the outset of the military operation, Abkhazia has repeatedly voiced support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Sukhum also recognized the independence of the LPR and DPR, and a group of Abkhaz volunteers has joined the operation.
First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs Konstantin Zatulin told socialbites.ca that Russia has few objections to Abkhazia’s aim of joining the Union State. He suggested that joining could help resolve several bilateral issues, including border coordination with Russia. He also referenced a review of border regimes as a practical example of how such integration might function between Abkhazia and Russia, and potentially with Belarus.
“If Abkhazia’s desire to join the Union State is confirmed and reformed, the green light will be given to solve the problem in the same way,” he added.
Another potential benefit often discussed is the right for Russians to own real estate in Abkhazia. “Delays in this area reduce incentives for investment by Russian citizens, which is a concern for me. There are fears from opponents who warn that gaining ownership could threaten Abkhaz control. Yet the land issue extends beyond housing and includes property guarantees and business opportunities with Abkhaz partners, who have been observed selling the same property multiple times. Investment in Abkhazia’s resort sector faces barriers under current laws.”
Opinions in Abkhazia
Unlike South Ossetia, Abkhazia is not pursuing incorporation into Russia. As explained by Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector of IMEMO RAS, Abkhaz political elites favor continued development as an independent entity supported by Russia. The goal is to maintain sovereignty while engaging in confederal formats rather than joining any single state.
“The Abkhaz community and other residents have never indicated a desire to become part of Russia,” the expert noted.
Yet consensus within Abkhaz society about joining the Union State remains unsettled. Ilya Gunia, head of the parliament’s defense and national security commission, said the National Assembly has never debated the issue. “There is no clear consensus, and I’m not sure what the proposal even entails,” he remarked. Adgur Ardzinba, a leader of the Abkhaz opposition, refrained from commenting on Bzhaniya’s statement for now, though he previously supported the idea in remarks to socialbites.ca in March.
The question of Abkhazia’s accession to the Russian Federation is not on the agenda. In the medium term, some argue Abkhazia should pursue the framework laid out in the 1999 Union State agreement between Russia and Belarus. By many measures, Abkhazia and Russia have achieved greater momentum and cooperation than Belarus, according to advocates of closer ties.
Vitaly Labakhua, who heads a development foundation for Abkhazia, believes that the majority of Abkhaz society supports a stronger alliance with Russia. “Abkhaz society has already declared its stance. We see ourselves as part of the Russian world and our future with Russia. Joining the Union State is a priority, and Abkhazia strongly supports this idea. The community is largely aligned on this,” he stated.
Third wheel?
A key obstacle remains: Belarus has not recognized Abkhazia’s independence. Labakhua warned that Belarusian leadership may struggle to clarify its long-term stance. “It’s not possible to balance on two chairs. A clear choice must be made, and the world is changing, pushing nations to decide,” the expert advised.
Meanwhile, Bzhaniya emphasized ongoing economic cooperation with Belarus despite the lack of diplomatic recognition and framed it as a significant bilateral project. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly said he would recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia once Russia signals it is appropriate. In a past interview, Lukashenko referenced guidance from a European official to avoid recognition after the 2008 conflict, a warning he later described as not followed by Minsk. A deputy from the State Duma reiterated support for discussions with Belarus on recognition in light of Bzhaniya’s statements. He noted that Belarus’s evolving position might reflect changing circumstances and urged allied dialogue on the matter.
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